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Never believe in loot theories

Discussion in 'Loot Theories' started by Smoerble, Jul 4, 2011.

  1. Corey "Greyfox"

    Corey "Greyfox" Member

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    Granted you could be right, and I have considered those possibilitys aswell. Now those where considered in my theroy, but this thread is not about my theroy so I'll end it there(plus still working out some fine details) :)
     
  2. Lezardine

    Lezardine Active Member

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    /*Lazy mode off*/

    Possible reasons of this thread's existence:

    1°) Smoerble you Troll!!!!
    2°) Driving community's attention away from the "problems" they have with Arkadia
    3°) Smoerble you Troll!!!! ;)

    Now for the loot theories :)
    I personally think as Faye. And MA/FPC/... have stated it in the past, too. You have to match your skills to the gear you use, to the mob you hunt (or whatever other activity). That is only a small part of the equation. This universe wouldn't be called Entropia if we could simply find out all the variables that are involved in the output.
    We can try to guess some things, on the long run, with big numbers. But nothing can be certain.

    Taken from Wikipedia:
    "Entropy is a measure of disorder, or more precisely unpredictability. For example, a series of coin tosses with a fair coin has maximum entropy, since there is no way to predict what will come next.[...]"

    Full article here. ;)

    So yes, the system IS complicated. But it's a programmer's job to manage complicated things :)
    And yeah, there must be some really good ppl at MA to manage that system since 2002 ;)

    What if it's not only one activity but a combination of them? with a gear setup for each of them? and a combination of mobs/ores/bp's/places/time/add any variable here?
    The entropy of this system's possible outcomes is huge as we don't even know the variables that are involved in the equation.
    I believe there are quite a few involved, thus the huge entropy of the system.
    This is a universe of entropy :D
    This is why it ressembles to gambling. Predictability is very low, and it seems to us this is all random.

    We can partially influence the outcome, by trying to find combinations that give some better outcomes, thus reducing he entropy of these outcomes. And then it ressembles less to gamble. ;)
    Some folks say they have a pattern that work for them... I beleive them. I used to have something like that with Kerbies back on Calypso pre-VU10. I have yet to find a setup on Arkadia.

    Now you have my point, I stop the blah-blah and go back to research :)

    Cheers,

    .LeZ.

    *Disclaimer* I are no uber at all, nor very known, and I don't pretend to know the truth, just trying to understand with my programmer's distorted brain, and adding to the troll ;)
     
  3. fresco

    fresco Member

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    well, Stryker, 125% on cycled ammo? he did crack the loot system, did he? so just do what he does ;)
     
  4. Jenny ferr

    Jenny ferr Well-Known Member Pro Users

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    Probably what we all try to do, survive on markup which is what he said if I'm thinking of the same thing as you got that 125% from
     
  5. MG Mighty

    MG Mighty Member

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    Before he came to be an uber and

    From what I read I did much better than that, to the point of every mob that he killed had much better than average loot

    maybe it was just a rumor, but others confirmed that they found something that he could had been using (due to his global patterns) and it worked for them and others to whom they told consistently.

    (of course when it came to attention to MA that a player had cracked a system and start using it in ammounts they don't consider good for business they change the system).
     
  6. Milesio

    Milesio Platinum Member Platinum Member

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    Global or HOF at first click is something pass others.

    If i want a global :

    Hunting: I must choose a medium mob and go a site with a lot of them and start killing. Perhaps after one hour (or two) i have a baby global.

    Mining: Waste a lot peds for craft or buy some little amps, look auction and buy a lot enhancers, then start drop bombs in sites you know can be ores. Perhaps 2 or 3 days later, just after i break last amp then i have a baby global.

    Crafting: Basic BP (level 1) is very rare will give you global if you do a long crafting run. This is bored. You do this runs for loot more high level bp. Then you collect materials for some clicks in this more level bp. (Mmmmm, the risk). And sometimes you have baby global.

    There is some works not doing global, as color or texture or hair or body sculpting.
     
  7. Xandra

    Xandra Active Member Pro Users

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    Hi,

    IMHO Smoerble is correct.

    It's safest for MA to keep the system simple (KISS!), using automagically created dynamic variables for their safety, and adding as much RNG values into as possible. Then adding a layer of game complexity named "skills" to create enough fog to fool any government investigation.

    What would be the goals that MA would be after (descendant importance)?

    1. Never ever must be looted more than MA would be ready to pay out. Every loot must obey this rule, be it using a dynamic pay-out-factor, and/or a dynamic hard cap. The dynamic is MA's book-keeping numbers.
      You can bet your cute behinds that such exists. MA will never give you loot that, withdrawn, would sent them into bankruptcy.
      .
    2. In case a participant sues MA of being a scam, a pyramid scheme, or similar it has to be easily rebuttable. So it has to be assured that the system is
      a.) well protected against influence of any (non-authorized) personal,
      b.) using sufficient randomness to ensure a fair loot distribution.
      You can bet your cute behinds that such exists. MA would never risk a long trial only giving bad coverage - I'm very sure that there's a very well worked out strategy, and that this strategy has already been proved successfully.
      .
    3. MA has to satisfy, fondle and comfort a few participants that are:
      a.) role models left over from the old times, or
      b.) new gamblers coming in ready to deposit really big.
      Both are extremely important, MA needs them /feeds on them, they bring the money. Spending it as group b.), or, as in group a.), attracting more ppl for group b.).
      So we now have a few huge monsters, impossible to 95% of the population, but always good for an ATH. So now we have very rare BP's for those high-skill/ high-stake crafters that are gold mines.
      .
    4. Such a system has to be controllable and maintainable, at adequate costs. For instance, counting the PED spent for every single inhabitant of the EU, with every single action, for every single mob/ bomb/ crafting attempt would need a really huge database server. Giga-bazillions of data to store continuously, even with the few 10K active participants now. But MA aims for more - and the system has to be able to cater this.
      So you can bet your cute behinds that such doesn't exist. It would break down as soon as, for instance, Arkadia would start advertising and get another 3x participants into the game.
      It just has to be slim, optimized and easy to handle. Counting personal stuff decay is exactly the opposite.
      Not more possible but to use one player variable (HP wasted, cost of dropping bomb/ crafting the thing) to determine the outcome.
      Checking the long term history of each single player is just obsolete, especially when hoping to multiply the user counter.


    And the Swedish investigation? Am I allowed to laugh? Legion posted it (translated, and summarized by me):

    "We didn't fully understand the task, nor had we the knowledge needed to decide for judging - so innocent until prove of guilty, right? This way we cannot decide that EU is gambling. We might try to re-evaluate as long as we get more complains, and more support."

    This is no discharge. It's only a confession of a small, forgettable commission that they don't have the money, man power and support needed to answer such a question. It's not a charter for MA at all.
    The sword is still pending. One party has declared that they'd have no knife to cut the rope, for now.

    It hasn't been said that EU isn't gambling. It just has been said that the commission meant to judge couldn't do it. And that, due to the poor support this commission has, any judgment ever might be "We have no information." So, due to the policy of "un-guilty until proven guilty" we'll have to tell "innocent" to nearly everyone ...

    I'm explicitly not attacking the Swedish commission. They do what they can, and for the best knowledge they have. I don't doubt this. But they might be decades behind ...

    Anyway, have a good time!
     
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  8. Smoerble

    Smoerble Active Member Pro Users

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    @Lez: why a,m I trolling? A lot ppl claim they know how loot works and raise hopes in new players that cannot be fulfilled. To set expecations at the correct level is far from trolling.

    About "use right gear, mobs etc" has nothing to do with the system that spreads out loot.

    As said above (not only by me): everytime you loot a mob, you have a chance to loot something.
    So the question is how much you spend to loot that mob. The more eco you play, the more loot attamepts you get with the same amount of PEDs.

    Let's say, you have a melee, a laser and a BLP setup, and each combination has exactly the same decay and damage. Then your loot will not change, no matter if you change your weapons or not.

    Same with percepction gains or whatever: everytime you shoot and everytime you kill a mob you have a % chance to gain a skill. But there is no link between your skill gains and the loot you will get.

    Simply, because loot is not put into the mob before you kill it. Loot is generated when you loot it, not before.

    The minimum and maximum loot is set by some formula for each mob, and it might be a straight line between min and max or a curve... however: there is no way for a player to change his chance to get a HOF or not on that mob.


    Some players claim, that they have better loot when they spend more TT or use uneco weapons etc. Others claim, that there is a link between how much you deposit or spend and what you loot. All this cannot be the case:
    Some players are profitbale without ever depositting, others only with using eco weapons.

    And last but not least:
    There are several players who play EU for a living. None of them believes in special weapons, special avatars, skill gains as "HOF is coming" or anything like that.
     
  9. XeroX

    XeroX Active Member Pro Users

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    I support these players. The input we give into the system determines the output.
    Hunt a high defense decay Mob for 25k PED turnover with a good eco ranged weapon. Then hunt them for 25k PED turnover with dagger 3C. Skill gains are about 1% of the total tt spend so the roughly 250PED TT each you get won´t change much. Use the EU hunter tool to track everything you do. I´ve seen the results of such a test and to me they are conclusive. I also did the eco side of the experiment myself and came to the same result. However I didn´t do the dagger 3C side of it since I am not rich. :D
    The conclusion of the experiment is that the system evens out your returns to a set TT% return rate. With eco maxed weapons this happens "fast" and with lower loots. With an uneco setup this happens "slow" and with higher loots. Thus there are some situations where it is good to be less eco. You can see every player who plays EU for a living do that.
     
  10. Smoerble

    Smoerble Active Member Pro Users

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    This also only is a theory and I can prove that this is definately NOT the case. If that would be correct, I would have gotten several 5digits and minimum one ATH in 5 years.

    So if this theory does not work for me in 5 or 6 years of depositing way more than avarage players, no avarage player should follow this theory.

    About the ppl who claim EU is not a casino: this is also not proven, so in this topic there are again a lot of statements where people claim "this is a fact" but no-one can verify this.

    This also applies to my initial post ofc. But it seems, that loot theories are like religion: you cannot prove anything what people believe in, but they are sure, it's exactly as they say, even if no-one can reproduce it.
     
  11. XeroX

    XeroX Active Member Pro Users

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    Ehrm did you.... actually read my post? :p
    I was writing about the input you give to the system with your weapon/fap/armor. Not with your credit card. ;)
    Given a decent bankroll anyone can reproduce the results of the experiment I mentioned above. Just because you are not crazy enough to do it doesn´t mean you wouldn´t get the same results. If you can´t be arsed to do it yourself I can send you the EU hunter tool files of my part of the experiment. However I am not sure if that would help since you write you can´t reproduce it yourself.... so you might have to try it yourself to notice that the input your hunting setup gives into the system determines the output you get.
     
  12. MIND

    MIND Member

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    -:dumb mode on:-
    meh if you live in sweden ask 118 118 how the lootsystem works :D

    -:dumb mode off:-
    ... (nothing to say) ...
     
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  13. Leona

    Leona Member

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    Thats a lot of loot theories in your opening post Smoerble. ;)
     
  14. DaveFoz

    DaveFoz Member

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    I must admit that some of the theories I have heard have definatly gone from the pure stupid all the way through to something that has some sort of backing when looked at in a certain light from a certain direction.

    In fact on a soc hunt last night we got around to chatting loot theories and some of the old ones we had heard, 2 examples here:

    "Start shooting at a Longu when it yawns" - Like that is ever gonna do anything really
    "If after 3 No loots stop and wait 10 mins" - Now that could make a hunt last forever don't you think.

    Loot Theory - yep there is one and it is safely locked up in MA somewhere covered by NDA and other such law things, that will stop it getting out into the public domain.

    But you have to admit some of them can be quite amusing as well
     
  15. Jenny ferr

    Jenny ferr Well-Known Member Pro Users

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    you haven't read the last? (or am I too late to copy it?)

    From Kim|MindArk
     
  16. KMax

    KMax Well-Known Member Pro Users

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    Every "This Creature does not carry any loot" gives you another 1/1000000% chance to getting a 10K+ PED HoF :) If you reach 90% and still haven't gotten one you have to start all over at 0% again.
     
  17. Klod

    Klod Member

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    I believe in luck zones. How you get there might be random but once your in them its hardly random. You will hit nice stuff! Im in one atm.
     
  18. Snuggins

    Snuggins Member

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    Enjoy it while it lasts! :)

    You mean temporal luck zone, not spacial right? I agree the temporal kind exists... jury is out on spacial ones.

    I think the luck zones are based on some crazy voodoo algorithm of skill advancement personally.
     
  19. Cyborg Bill

    Cyborg Bill Well-Known Member Pro Users

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    Loot theories do work in game.
    Mine has worked perfectly once I solved it.

    First and fore most not all avatars have the same chances to loot something. (care to debate me having same chances as Star or Stryker?)
    Second returns are set to 90% over time. Some players enjoy added parameters for various reasons.(its a computer program doing what it was told to do)
    He who hits the lootserver first hits best. AKA faster ping when looting gets priority to the lootables tables.
    The house can never lose until corruption sets in like in all things money..its that whole root of all evil thing.
    If my socmate Wizzszz has a good day Im screwed. if he does badly I mine my ass off.
    If I start a soc hunt in the beginning we do well. if I jump in after it starts it immediatly tanks
    Lastly if I find fruit or stones the run immediatly dries up and I must move.
     
  20. RexDameon

    RexDameon Active Member Pro Users

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    my theory is that i will get no globals and crap loot for a couple more years and then one day i will get the first 1,000,000+ PED ATH.
     

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