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Never believe in loot theories

Discussion in 'Loot Theories' started by Smoerble, Jul 4, 2011.

  1. Smoerble

    Smoerble Active Member Pro Users

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    if anyone would have cracked the loot theory/the system… then he would profit all the time and only loot the cool stuff. The people who tell you about "what to do to increase loot" all don't have the high end items.

    It’s all random. Bigger mobs have higher chances for rare items, some mobs have higher chances than others.

    But if 1000 players loot 1000 Yukas at the same day, they have all equal chances.
    Same as with a lottery: if you have more tickets (more looted mobs), your chances are just higher.
    This means: the more mobs you loot, the higher is your chance to get a rare item. But this also means: you can loot 100.000 mobs and get only TT stuff or you loot only one and get the big hit.

    I personally don’t believe in any complicated loot theories. 3 reasons:
    1) It would be dangerous for the game developer, to make it anything else but random. Everything else can be cracked if you have enough or the right data. Random = safety for the game developer.
    2) The more complex something is, the more bugs it can contain. If you have a complex strategy, it’s impossible to test it 100% safe. Maybe you miss a bug and find out after years, that it was broken. Random = more safe than complexity (for game developers)
    3) All casinos and lottery in the world use only games (except Black Jack) that work 100% safe on random chances. Simpliest example: Roulette (the casino will always win in the long run because of the chances) or a normal lottery. You cannot break these systems.

    Often you find articles talking about “you get better loot doing this or that”. No-one has enough data to VERIFY that his theory works. Simply because:
    The game has so mnay variations that you would need several thousand runs with the exact same skill, weapon, TT and whatever combination, all detail logged… only then you could check what works best.
    But
    a) your skills always change and
    b) the game always changes (sometimes several times a month)
    So no-one has safe data to verify if any loot theory is real. It might work for a week or a month, but it cannot work over half a year or longer.

    Again: if anyone would have cracked the loot theory/the system… then he would profit all the time and only loot the cool stuff. The people who tell you about "what to do to increase loot" all don't have the high end items.
     
  2. Faye

    Faye Member Pro Users

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    So your theory is there is no theory =)

    But the loot system is kinda simple. it is a simple formula but nobody knows it. it has to do with gear+time+place+decay +cycled ped+ more varabiles you will know.

    Changing some varaibles can change loot a bit . call me mad but I seen it already in missions and hunt sheets. Dont think the APIS for example is the best gun ... it aint ...

    For more information look up your local nut =)
     
  3. Sub-Zero

    Sub-Zero Member

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    Only lootius knows how loot works :). I have asked him many times. But he not respond :(
     
  4. Calin

    Calin Member

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    I'm a loot atheist. There is no loot.
     
  5. Larkin

    Larkin Platinum Member Staff Member PAF Senior Mod Platinum Member

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    I like this :)

    Also, I moved this to loot theories. The 'there is no theory' theory :)
     
  6. Smoerble

    Smoerble Active Member Pro Users

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    MA wants to make money. At the end of the month, they want to have x% of the total PEDs spent in game.
    MA doesn't need any complexity.
    So they will not add it. As described above: complexity is risk. MA will not take any risk they can avoid.

    Please don't get me wrong. I don't call you mad. There are descriptions for this human behaviour, that they see patterns when there are no patterns, but I on't know the english names and articles.

    However: as described above: you simply cannot generate enough CLEAN data (not even with a society) to verify anything. You feel like there is a pattern, but you are never able to prove it.

    If you program a simple randomizer that generates a loot from 0,01 PED to, let's say, 1000 PEDs, and you let it run 1000 times, you find a lot patterns. The more often you loot something, the more likely it looks like a patern from time to time.

    Now add random skill gains... each time you loot, you have a chance to gain 1 skill gain in 20 skills... you get a lot big loot numbers after some skill gains.

    Now add more variables (armor, weapon etc etc etc).
    Each variable will add a feel of a pattern from time to time. If you see this, you will think it's a pattern.
    But you experience in real life very often, that the pattern does NOT result in a global... still humans tend to believe: there must be pattern.
     
  7. ermik

    ermik Member

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    Who said cracking the loot system would generate more loot?

    I have my thoughts on how things work , but that dont mean i profit from it , it only means i know in forehand what to expect in return from my profession.

    The biggest mistake people make when trying to break the loot system is that they look for ways to gain from it. Think objective and things look more clear.

    I claim to have a good idea on how things work , it cant really be exploited as far as i have come in my research, but the only advantage it gives me imo is the fact that i know what to expect , and then i can choose path accordingly.

    cheers

    ermik
     
  8. jcfuller

    jcfuller Member

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    As a long time player and a programmer I have a pretty good handle on how I would apply loot distribution.

    The first item that needs to be met is to statisfy the regulating government agency that EU is NOT gambling.
    And with that, RANDOM generation in all areas, except possibly hit values, must be ruled out.
    The next item is the programmers NDA. What if a disgruntled programmer leaked the holy grail?
    With the theory I present it makes no difference. They can give you the source and you still could not predict loot payout.

    Each item in game is an object. The ones we are concerned with: Avatar,mob,location
    These have a data item that is set by something similar to a biorythm cycle. The Avatar starting point started on day of creation and I would think has a fixed duration cycle (when it moves to the next point on the sine curve). The mob and location items probably have a duration cycle that can, and probably is, changed.
    I feel the area holds the normal loot and not the mob.This keeps it simple across all three; hunting,mining,manufacturing.
    On a kill the the "loot" data item for all three are compared by some formula and sent to the loot server. We all know there is a loot server as we often have to wait for a no loot message or a popup loot window to show after a kill.
    For events (of the past not sure on current) the mob also may carry an item.


    So for any given Avatar,mob,location a loot ?(%) item can be quickly calculated and sent to the loot server. NO RANDOMNESS!


    For those with no programming background do a little research.


    James
     
  9. KikkiJikki

    KikkiJikki Well-Known Member Pro Users

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    Dear James,

    With respect, bzzzt. Randomness does not need to be ruled out. Inclusion of a random element does not necessarily imply gambling.
    Now your algorithm could well be true but there isnt really any data to support or disprove that model. It is however highly risky from a business perspective. A strictly deterministic algorithm if leaked, could be leveraged despite your assertion to the contrary.

    Regards,
    KikkiJikki
     
  10. endy

    endy Active Member Pro Users

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    Maybe EU got away with short term averages?

    Like when you are crafting, the sequence of success/fail/near success hits is random, but the average over the certain short number of clicks is set through a definite formula.

    The nature of this formula is so that you have to spend time and money to figure out how it's been currently initialized for you, so even if you know the code, it won't help you much.
     
  11. ermik

    ermik Member

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    Ive worked with computer systems since 1994 ( on a hobby basis since 1985 )

    I agree on the avatar biorythm and the mob and location beeing hot or cold.

    But , thats only the part that distributes the loot , people spend too much thinking about the output ( loot ).

    From an intellectual point of view , the things you should focus on is what you put into the system , and how you do it, thats the only part we can affect , we cannot affect the loot itself , only our input.

    However , if we play a little with how and what we choose as input , we get quite interesting results :)

    cheers

    ermik
     
  12. Fopsie

    Fopsie Active Member Pro Users

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    Well I have a loot theory but it only seems to work on droka / trooper / legionare back on calypso for myself and it never failed sins I discovered it. I have shared it with some IRL friends and for them it did not work atall.
     
  13. MG Mighty

    MG Mighty Member

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    1 WRONG

    That would put MA out of business since it hasn't a gaming licence
    Making it random would make it a lottery and I'm pretty sure that the swedich autorities wouldn't like that very much to go without previous autorization.


    2 WRONG
    You can make it extremelly complex and full of bugs,
    then to correct it you just need a proper database to ensure that the looted atributed to the player (community) doesn't exceed a certain %
    Off course that would piss of many players if the costs were to be distributed to the community due to a bug an improper loot implementation.
    (a loot pool created by a rack may be used to generate extremelly large loots, aka, ATH)

    3 WRONG
    See 1
    I repeat MA can't be a casino like game unless it gets autorization for it.
     
  14. Puck

    Puck Adviser Pro Users Arkadia Adviser

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    Wrong? You imply you are certain. Did you intend to write "I disagree"?
     
  15. MG Mighty

    MG Mighty Member

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    I'm certain that some aspects are wrong in each case, so it's not a matter of "I disagree".
     
  16. Shinobi

    Shinobi Guest

    Not quite a theory but general knowledge. soon as you get lots of perception gain with fruit finds, a HOF is close for you personally. Sure used to always be like that with mining.
     
  17. Lezardine

    Lezardine Active Member

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    ok folks, I had a connection prob and too lazy to retype all...

    So only one word...

    ENTROPY
    Applied to information theory

    Nice article on wikipedia ;)

    .Lez.
     
  18. Corey "Greyfox"

    Corey "Greyfox" Member

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    Something to add to this, MA was investigated about unauthorized gambling claims. The investigation turned up that EU was in fact not gambling so loot TT value can not be random, although what you get in loot can be.
     
  19. MG Mighty

    MG Mighty Member

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    My loot theory predicts this to be true. But correlation does not imply causation ...
     
  20. Colbey Kal

    Colbey Kal Member

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    Sure, I'll take that as fact.

    Sure, I'll also take that as a fact.

    I've never seen where this is the reason the authorities decided EU was not violating the Swedish gambling laws.

    I'll grant that one possible reason for the finding of "no violation" would be that the TT return is not random, but there are other possible causes. It depends alot on the 'legal' definition of gambling in Sweden

    Possible Explanation 1:

    Maybe the the loot is Randomly distributed, with an average TT return of X%, but since the value of the loot is the TT value times MU, it could get around the "legal" definition of gambling.
    Example : If you are very patient and only bought Narcanisum at 127% (or lower), and Alicenies Gel at 120% (or lower), used a 100QR print, and waited to sell the Basic Sheet Metal at 170%, (or higher) a 'standard' (no hof) 90% run would have given a fair profit. Of course, most players wouldn't do this... that doesn't mean they couldn't.

    Possible Explanation 2:
    Maybe EU has in their official business plan that the 'game' is based on micro-transactions where the cost to play is each shot fired, without expectation of return of loot to player.
    Example : In the real world when playing Paint-ball each shot fired has a very small cost. Entering a free Paint-ball contest where the winner receives a one-year supply of "free" pellets would not be gambling.

    Possible Explanation 3
    :
    MA could have paid off* the officials to find in MA's favor.

    I, personally, am neither a lawyer nor Swedish. I don't know why the officials made their decision. I don't care. I try not to read more than what was said into simple statements of facts though.




    * This is intended as a joke. MA has never done any illegal or immoral acts. (to my knowledge)
     

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