1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Loot Theories Overview

Discussion in 'Loot Theories' started by mastergerund, Feb 12, 2017.

  1. mastergerund

    mastergerund Member

    Messages:
    23
    Likes Received:
    2
    Trophy Points:
    8
    Lootius sent me an angel of light with instructions for where to find writings on Bismuth parchment that contain the most accurate loot theory. No wait...

    We all wish for that experience, right?

    In practice, I think that loot theories can be grouped into three broad categories.

    Category A I would call the absurdly complicated...
    It usually starts with a story. I was hunting Puny Caudertaugus on Calypso and I saw somebody in Viceroy Armor come and sweat exactly 13 punies to aggro them. When he was surrounded by punies, he dropped a mining device and it globaled. Then after he finished collecting all the ore, he killed all the punies, and one of them globaled too. I thought it was crazy and asked him about it, and he said it works every day, but only if he starts collecting the 13 mobs at 13:13 server time.

    These types of stories are easily dismissed, and almost certainly false. If such tricks actually worked, it would cause severe losses to MA. (Not that they are doing well financially, so you never know...) They are also easily falsifiable (try it every day for 100 days at the exact same time and see what % it actually works... Then try it at some other specified times to confirm the time matters, etc.)

    Category B I would call variants on wave theory...
    For these there is either a hard-coded or calculated pattern. The pattern could be a multiple of something (hp*##, decay *##, dmg*##) or a specific number sequence that pays out. I have seen these theories described as being applied at individual-level, creature-level, server-level, planet-level, game-level, or as inter-related waves across all 5. For a multiple-pattern, the wave would calculate a multiple of some inputs and generate loot based on the multiple. For a specific number sequence, the wave calculates (or is hard-coded) a specific loot outcome that is given.

    Some variants are easy to test and rule out, but the more complicated variants are impossible to test and rule out because no individual (or even society) has enough control over everything that happens in the game. For these one can only apply Occam's razor and say that Category C is easier to code and gives MA more predictable outcomes, so Category C is more likely. Which brings us to Category C.

    Category C I would call RNG-driven...
    This usually calls for a 2-step process.
    First, TT value of loot is calculated, using RNG to determine a multiple, which is then applied to hp, decay, or dmg. (It could also be a set number range, not a multiple, that is established for each creature type. Since that number range would have to be established by MA, based on some characteristics of the creature, it would be indistinguishable from a multiple, except that it could lead to apparently different multiples across different creature types.)
    Second, a loot table is used to determine the composition of the TT value actually received. This loot table brings in it's own set of complications (and can be used to combine wave theory with RNG, where the loot rewarded is driven by RNG, but the loot available in the table is driven by wave theory, loot pools, etc.)

    In my separate hunting log thread, I will be conducting experiments that will differentiate between different versions of B and C, hopefully disproving some of the variants. For simplicity, not every test will be constructed in a way that nails the result set down to only supporting one specific theory. Instead, each test will be constructed to 'disprove' specific theories. The purpose of this thread as separate from that thread is so that people can share any theories that don't fit into the above categories, and I can start thinking about test ideas that I might have missed.

    Of course there will always be true believers for any loot theory one can imagine, but those who prefer evidence and experimentation over Bismuth plates from Lootius may come to a better understanding and make more informed hunting decisions.
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  2. jo aloisius smith

    jo aloisius smith Member

    Messages:
    21
    Likes Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    8
    you going about this all wrong - spend your time and energy to prove the correct theory! - anyone can disprove them - good work summing them up though
     
  3. mastergerund

    mastergerund Member

    Messages:
    23
    Likes Received:
    2
    Trophy Points:
    8
    The idea is to develop experiments that would have very different results under different theories. That 'proves' the good theories by disproving the competing bad theories.

    One issue I have seen with many of the experiments supporting different theories is that they don't consider whether competing theories are also supported by the results.

    For example, many wave theory proofs can also be explained by RNG, or vice versa, so people post results in support of their theories, but their results don't convince.
     
  4. penethol

    penethol New Member

    Messages:
    5
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    1
    Loot theory that works EVERY TIME. This may seem a stretch, but stick with me, I can assure you it works. First, go to u-tube and find your favorite hof vid. Be sure its a good one, where it was sorta dark and u get lots of gold swirly. Turn the volume to high, and hit pause just before the hof happens. Step 2, go to the web shop and purchase the 100$ ammo package, which is actually 1010 ped +, an instant winner. The last step is sorta tricky! Log in! Sync in the video with your favorite hof. Bam, u just hof'd 1010 ped, congratulations. Wasn't that exhilarating!
     
    • Funny Funny x 2

Share This Page