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Hunting caraboks is not eco at all

Discussion in 'Hunting' started by Kiddoo, May 7, 2015.

  1. Kiddoo

    Kiddoo Deactivated User

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    Hyellow,

    One very common advice I heard being said to all newbies is to hunt/swunt caraboks. And yeah, I got the very same advice, accepted it without questioning and followed it religiously ever since my first day (everyone who knows me, knows that I can always be found at an academy or another swunting them, caraboks).

    Yet, despite my efforts to be as eco as possible, my returns (not counting the sweat) were always much lower than the magical, expected average 90%, and when almost all other peoples I talked with complained of similar way lower returns than expected, I actually start questioning that advice I got in my very first day and which I heard countless times ever since.

    And, eventually, came to the conclusion from the title - hunting caraboks is not eco / profitable at all. And I'll continue by showing the numbers and explaining why.


    Let's start with some pure theory... how much would it cost with an eco setup (in my case either S.I. HK110 or S.I. Psy-Blade - both maxed) to kill one carabok.

    At a first look, one might mistakenly say that 10 hp divided by 2.866 dpp (according to Entropedia), so about 3.489 pecs per carabok. But that number doesn't take in consideration a very important factor at low HP mobs - overkill.

    So let's see what's the real cost, and best way to do it would be to use probabilistic math.

    Excluding misses and crits, we can kill a carabok in three, four of five shots (two shots have a maximum damage of 2*4=8 hp, so not enough, while five shots have a minimum damage of 5*2=10 hp, so enough to kill, no way to shoot a sixth time).

    Both weapons have damage between 2 and 4, which means that on each shoot we'll have a guaranteed 1.9 damage plus anything between 0.1 and 2.1 (so rolling a dice with 21 faces).

    The chance to kill it in three kills is 19.12% (formula is 3d21 + 3*19 equaling at least 100).
    The chance to need five shots (four shots not being enough) is 4.55% (formula is (4d21 + 4*19 equaling at most 99).
    The remaining chances 100-19.12-4.55=76.33% is that it will require four shoots to be killed.

    Now putting them in a formula it means we'll need on average 0.1912 * 3 + 0.0455 * 5 + 0.7733 * 4 = 3.8943 hits to kill a carabok.

    Divide that with 0.97 pec (cost per shoot) and we come to 3.7774 pecs.

    Multiply now with 1.(1) to account for misses (since even with a maxed weapon we only have 90% hit chances) and we come to 4.1970 pecs.

    Or if you want all formula on a line:

    (0.1912 * 3 + 0.0455 * 5 + 0.7733 * 4) * 0.97 * 1.(1) = 4.197 pecs


    Which is, as we can observe, (4.197 * 100 / 3.489) - 100 = 20.29% higher than the expected 3.489 pecs.

    Now let's make the reverse math and see what's our effective dpp - 10 (hp of carabok) divided by 4.197 (effective cost to kill a carabok) = 2.382 dpp - quite terrible, isn't it?

    Note: I know, I didn't considered the crits (found it rather hard to incorporate them in the formula), but they are only 2% and should not make a huge difference.


    Let's compare theory with practice...

    I killed 4,100 caraboks with this setup (quite a big enough sample for a low variation formula), having total costs of 170.06 PEDs (17,006 PECs), so like 4.1478 pecs to kill a carabok. Even more, the daily variations in costs were never higher than +/- 3.2%, which tells us once again that we deal with a low variation scenario.

    As expected, a bit better than the math results (where I neglected the crits), but still very close of what the theory said - (4.1478 * 100 / 3.489) - 100 = 18.82% higher than the "expected" cost. and a terrible dpp of 10 / 4.1478 = 2.410 dpp.


    Conclusions

    Although I tried to minimize the over kill as much as possible (that's the reason of using S.I. HK110 or S.I. Psy-Blade, because of the lower damage), it still has a huge impact, lowering our DPP and general econess to a very low level, making it unworthy (money wise at least to hunt or swunt caraboks).

    Same theory applies to any other low hp mobs, but the higher the HP, the lower the effect. So, for example, I consider that swunting gallards is a much better advice than swunting caraboks.

    Swunting caraboks can still have its benefits - skill wise especially, and if counting the sweat into equation one can still make a small profit. But, overall, moneywise, hunting them caraboks is a bad practice and there are much better options out there.
     
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    Last edited: May 7, 2015
  2. KikkiJikki

    KikkiJikki Well-Known Member Pro Users

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    You've correctly identified overkill as the problem for low hp mobs. You need to find a finisher with lower damage range. psst I have a large trout for sale. Also consider if you can efficiently amp up ur main weapon to get higher dpp on the shots before you switch to finisher.

    I guess the other question to ask yourself is the average loot mu. Carabok hides used to have good mu but I haven't looked at them in a long time.
     
  3. mastermesh

    mastermesh Active Member

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    Yep. Find lower damage finisher. I personally use viper whip myself so as to skill up taming related skill as I do the final kill click. Of course if you go this low on damage (2 to 5 damage if you count in crits) rocktropia is better hunting than carobok anyways due to lower hp mob than carobok resulting in higher kill count and kill skill gainz, so that is where my avatar is for now instead of finishing carobok mission.... low competition at arctic rig for oil also gives rt a leg up imho
     
  4. Sityl

    Sityl Member

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    I agree, overkill is a big deal, and gets bigger when the mobs are smaller.
     
  5. San

    San Well-Known Member

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    I just did a slightly longer test on them which I consider successful:
    http://arkadiaforum.com/threads/sans-hunting-log.12249/page-2#post-92741
    I'll do more and see how it continues. I currently believe the weapon used there is as close to ideal as possible.

    I'd also throw in that if you're using a finisher which is too weak or too slow, mobs can regenerate. It depends on the species, of course. For example, Gallard or Hadraada are recouping relatively fast. Wasting time there is wasting money.
     
  6. slither

    slither Active Member

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    Always amazed me why people hunt them. Using 2-4 dam on a 10hp mob is like me using a 200-400 dam weapon hunting a 1k hp mob, totally insane.

    I know you get lots of kill bonuses on skills but imo you're better hunting 50hp mobs. All mobs with 50hp or less give a bonus to skills, and the ability to use bigger guns before swapping to finisher plus less time involved targeting and looting mobs means you end up getting more skill per hour.
     
  7. Kiddoo

    Kiddoo Deactivated User

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    Actually, your test really confirm my math.

    You spent 1699 PEC to kill 411 caraboks (1.598 - 1.187), which means that your cost-per-kill was 1699/411= 4.1338 pec / carabok, which is very close with my 4.1478 pec / carabok (0.0033% difference :p). Also your effective dpp was 2.410, so just as terrible as mine. :)

    Now I haven't analyzed for a single minute the loot - I considered that, considering the much higher variation rate, without thousands and thousands of tracked caraboks, the sample would be too low to allow me to draw a conclusion, but it should be quite obvious that with an effective dpp of 2.41, you can't expect constant good results. :)



    Made the math for other weapons with higher dpp, like barbarella (amped or not), tt weapons (amped or not) or even the hk amped + hk as finished - all resulted in better results.

    Using a finisher with lower damage might be wise indeed, but 2-4 damage is already low (that's why I picked the hk); I am not aware of any UL weapon with lower damage than this and an affordable price. And on the L ones, when having to count the MU, the availability and everything... again, not sure you would end up with a better deal.



    In my case, the reason was that I could swunt them (not just hunt), something I couldn't do with 50 hp mobs, though, when taking the sweat amount in consideration, guaranteeing me a positive run each and every time. :)
     
    Last edited: May 7, 2015
  8. San

    San Well-Known Member

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    Yes of course, "ideal" is relative here. It just means you can't do much better with these guys and the tools available. The only weapons with even lower dmg I know of are from Rocktropia/Thing TT. Next opportunity to pack a bag full I intend to test it. Whips are so slow again that you run into regen.

    Anyways, the run resulted in a green zero (tt, not with mu!) for me without a single global, not even one item drop which gives me reason for hope. I can't shake off the suspicion that they probably adjusted the average returns for these mobs to keep new players motivated. I mean, the numbers show I've been hunting them for a little while and so far they turned out some of the least lossy things to do. I hadn't tracked it with such detail before, but always check my total tt value afterwards and it wasn't nearly as terrible as the calculations suggest.
     
  9. Ardorj

    Ardorj Active Member Pro Users

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    Question: is the low eco to hunt Carabok reflected in the loot? I.e., what is your (or other's) average return hunting 500+ Caraboks?
    Just have had a brain-itch that the total return on any mob for all players could be that magical 90%. So that when all hunters have terrible eco for a mob (Carabok for this example) then all hunters should expect to get round that magical 90%. If so, it can also explain why people often feel that the loot is down before/ after a big HOF; it's to correct the mobs-return to the 90%-bar.
     
  10. OZtwo

    OZtwo Active Member

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    You forgot to add a lot more into your math about the costs and gains hunting these low level mobs. A lot of people suggest hunting the carabok not for the peds but for the skill gains you can get to be able to hunt larger mobs in the future. They are kind of like an investment really.
     
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  11. San

    San Well-Known Member

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    412, the numbers are the first and last included (i.e. the mission counter was 1186 before I started). But I accidentally hit the key for the Scorpion twice because after a while of doing this you just become numb, and I had to finish the last one when the blade was spent half way. That's why there is also a little ammo in the expenses. Guess it comes to about the same.

    @OZtwo, of course for me this is the only motivation to go on with these, and why I especially keep using melee here. I want the evader bonus and all the strength and agility points I can get underway. As long as it remains sustainable.
     
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    Last edited: May 7, 2015
  12. sinkillerj

    sinkillerj Active Member

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    Agreed, puny mobs are notorious for having less return than other mobs on any planet, its all about the skill gain.
     
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  13. krazykat

    krazykat Active Member

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    Yes, I did the Carabok and Gallard missions with falx and labrys just to skill up on long blade. and then a soc mate lent me his UL whip so I could slill up whip skills on the carabok as well. I never worried too much about the returns as it was the skill gains that I was interested in.
     
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  14. Haruto Rat

    Haruto Rat Active Member

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    The fact puny hunters of the universe are not yet totally broke speaks strongly in favor of "loot pool per mob" hypothesis.

    I've done similar tests on Calypso punies, and I arrived at a bottomline eco figure in the range of 2.42...2.43 (probably because those have less regen than caraboks).

    In any case, calculating actual bottomline cost is a good idea. The results may often be surprising. :)
     
  15. wournos

    wournos Active Member

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    TLDR because I hate numbers that are not my own. According to my tests, Carabok costs 4pec on average to kill with maxed TT fist/shortblade or Psy-Blade/Combat Knife. I personally have never heard anyone saying it's Eco to hunt these things. Only that it is recommended (done so myself) to swunt them because the sweat may cover for the loss of hunting. So I'm surprised that anyone would think they are Eco to deal with.

    I don't trust numbers on Entropedia so I conduct my own tests.
     
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  16. San

    San Well-Known Member

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    Just did the same test on Gallard which have 15 hp instead of 10, and as expected, eco is up to 2.556 dpp. The returns will pick up again over time, I hope. Otherwise this is not sustainable for too long.
    http://arkadiaforum.com/threads/sans-hunting-log.12249/page-2#post-92827

    Me neither, and all theory is gray anyway, as the saying goes in my language. Treating it as a black box, getting feet on the ground and testing it is the only way to take out the guesswork.
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2015
  17. sostoned

    sostoned Member

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    a 2-4 damage weapon is not suited for 10 hp mobs

    you need 14 or 15 damage max, ideal is 14 with small finisher.

    16 damage max is overkill of at least 5-10% but if you have the best possible weapon ists 10-20% difference.
     
  18. Bradley Killer Kell

    Bradley Killer Kell Member

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    Adding the ZX Sandukis to that HK110 will improve the eco. Of course, you then add the new Cost of Purchase, so all the 'profits' you get at the beginning will only go towards paying that back.

    Don't put the Omegatron A-101 on the HK110, it LOWERS the eco.
     
  19. Bradley Killer Kell

    Bradley Killer Kell Member

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    Wouldn't it depend on the Cost Per Attack of tht 14-15 Max Damage Weapon?

    I mean, if it costs more for 1 Attack to one-shot the thing (then Evades) than the Average Loot it drops, you lose.
     
  20. Kiddoo

    Kiddoo Deactivated User

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    Time for a little update.

    So, in my old setup (S.I. HK110), I was getting a cost per kill of 4.1478 and a DPP of 2.410.

    Taking advantage of a trip to RT that I made, I managed to get some Assault_Rifle_(FA)(L), and start using those as finishers (with 1-2 damage per shoot and no MU, you really can't get a better finisher), and my cost per kill decreased to 4.0348, so 2.4784 effective DPP.

    That's indeed 2.72% better (an economy of 0.113 pec per kill), but personally I doubt it is worthy to really bother about it - and here's why:
    - switching weapons involves quite a bit of extra stress, especially considering that the Assault_Rifle_(FA)(L) is automatic so if you don't switch from automatic to manual shooting, you'll end up loosing big money (if you shoot in the air it still consumes ammo and takes decay)
    - the weapon uses special ammo (UA won't work), so you must block quite a bit of money if making a serious stock
    - the weapon is not tradeable, so once bought, you must use them - can't trade them / tt them
    - since weapon is not tradeable, it means you have to buy them from RT yourself; talking in account a trip cost of 10 PED back and forth (and that's kinda cheap estimation), you would need to kill 1000 / 0.113 = 8850 caraboks to justify your travel cost

    So all in one, if you happen to go to RT anyway, feel free to make a stock of Assault_Rifle_(FA)(L) and low grades ammo - it's a really nice tagging weapon (high range) and it certainly improves your punnies econess if used as a finisher, but don't travel there just for that - the difference is really tiny, so doesn't worth the struggle.
     
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