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Arkadia Underground Deeds - sound investment?

Discussion in 'Arkadia Underground Deeds (AUDs)' started by Ido, Mar 22, 2014.

  1. Ido

    Ido Member

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    Hi Everyone,

    I like my CLD and the return they bring (current 20% is not the promised 30% but i still like them)
    To anyone wanting to invest in Deeds in general i will make a small comparison and maybe prediction.

    Where is the money coming from?
    CLD - They give you 25% / 60,000 of global Calypso planet partner profit (which is based on decay and such)
    AUD - Give you 5% / 200,000 of Arkadia Underground Loot that people get.

    Discussion: No matter where the players of Calypso play and what they do they always generate cash for the CLD revenue stream. AUD benefits from all planets players that are actively engaged on the Underground Area (hunting mining shopping .. i don't know if crafting i don't think crafting is taxed.)

    How much can we expect to earn?
    CLD pay out and this is tested .. lets say an average of 3.84 ped per deed each week .. (sometimes its more sometimes less ... lets average to 20% ROI) .. that means if you invested 1000 ped in 1 deed after 5 years 5*52*3.84 you will see your cash back.
    Now if you would like to buy CLD's now at a price ~1350 per deed they will still pay out 3.84 .. since we can't travel back in time (we should calculate at the current price) if you buy now your ROI is about 14.79% .. you get your ped back in 6 years and 9 months

    To make AUG a sound investment:
    they would have to pay out the same or better as CLD .. so 3.84 ped for each 1350 ped invested each deed would have to pay out 0.1422 ped (.. for this to happen the Land area would have tax the players 0.1422 * 200,000 = 28,440 ped)
    So the total loot paid out would have to be 568,800 PED/week

    Of course you can speculate the price of these will go up .. but how high will it rise? I think it depends only on how well they will do with pay outs...

    To put things in perspective I got some data from Entropia Life:
    http://www.entropialife.com/Planets.aspx?M=view&P=4 this page shows mining and hunting for the whole planet for the last 30 days ... today its 2,266,381 ped to make this into a weekly value 2266381/30*7 = 528,822 PED

    528,822 This is for the WHOLE planet of Arkadia and its less than the required 568,800 for the underground to generate...

    Of course Entropia Life does not take into account all the loot that is not Global or Hofed .. lets assume it amounts to double the initial value .. Arkadia is 9x bigger than the Underground .. but then the underground offers a FOMA/HELL type mining experience..

    The question is will it be enough?
    Or is it better to keep investing in CLD?

    Please share your opinion .. I haven't made up my mind yet on this subject.
     
  2. harmony

    harmony Active Member Pro Users

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    If you're looking purely at the ROI at the moment the CLD are the best choice.

    Long term is harder to predict.

    Although seeing i can spend over 3k ped tt amped mining without hitting a global i think you're calculations are off with the doubling of the global values, i would multiply them with at least 4. But you would have to check with a LA owner to make a better assumption of the turnover.

    If you look at the long term your question will be, do you think that Ark can and will grow bigger in population then it is now. (i think it can) and will those ark players play a lot in the underground (i don't know, no missions there yet(?), depends how interesting those maps will be i guess? and ofc on how the markup of the underground resources is). Assuming things will go along smoothly the AUD's have the potential to have a higher ROI then CLD, but my guess is that it will take 1-2 years at least.

    That being said i'll still buy some AUD's, mainly because the better planets are doing, the more chance we have of getting cool new content :)
     
  3. billyjeanruby

    billyjeanruby Member

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    I think it worth the risk to invest a small portion of you money at first.
    If it will be good or bad move? nobody knows right now tho
    Arkadia Studio's hoping in this project,
    and they are going to work for that, Underground to be successive!
    We should trust 'em tho, because they already did good job with planet Arkadia.
     
  4. Neil

    Neil Adviser Pro Users Arkadia Adviser

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    That's one opinion... I'm not sure what the income from the deeds will be, but I would rather invest in the AUDs than in CLDs regardless of the income. Throughout its history, Arkadia innovates and other planets follow. If Ark has more cash for development then Entropia grows faster. I think it's possible that the underground can reach 500k ped cycled per week, but the planet's economy would have to grow to 4x its size to soak up that many ores (or have some good skilling bps for the common ark ores).
     
  5. Ido

    Ido Member

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    Well yes of course Arkadians will buy out of sentiment and the will to support their planet. Everyone else however will try to choose based on ROI. And if the ROI is not very good i fear the price of the deeds will not go up as much as CLD's so people planning on buying and reselling once the price goes up might not earn as much as they expect (judging on CLD as example) ..

    If the ROI of AUD is not close to the one of CLD I really don't see them jumping up in price up by 50% ..

    And if the ROI is significantly lower than CLD's at current Market price I don't see there being much demand for those maybe not enough even to buy the 10,000,000 peds worth, unless it all goes to sentimental Arkadians, or people who don't care about the return on their investment and just want to participate, not saying either of the two is bad, but the question is will those people be able to pick up all the deeds? If I remember correctly CLD's were out on sale for a few months before the "big mysterious investor = MA" came and picked up the remaining HALF (30,000,000 PED) of them ?

    I'm just speculating trying to get people to voice their opinions, And if I were an arkadian I would pick up at least 1 without feeling bad about it, just to be a part of it and to support my planet. I did the same for calypso picked up 1 blindly ... and after seeing the ROI started buying more ;)

    Ido
     
  6. Dave Stevens

    Dave Stevens Member

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    A significant difference between CLD and AULD is the cost to purchase. I see it as a way for noobs/small depositors to get in on the action and ultimately trade up to the bigger items. Not everyone can afford to put $130 into a CLD. Putting $5 into a AULD is a much easier prospect. The ROI doesnt need to be as high. Compound interest allows you to trade up over time.

    i used compound interest on CLDs to allow me to trade up to a foma dome which pays out more than the equivalent cost in CLDs, so someone buying AULD could do the same over time to trade up to a CLD.

    AULD dont need to be better ROI than CLD, they need to be better ROI than you can get reasonable outside EU and/or better ROI than you can get from hunting/mining/crafting. I'm sure they will succeed at both those things for most people.
     
  7. atomicstorm

    atomicstorm Platinum Member Platinum Member

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    Sorry, but you cannot derive the tax values from anything currently available in the game. So in reality any math discussed in this thread is merely speculative and perhaps a bit deceiving.

    Furthermore like Neil said, at least we trust that whatever Arkadia promises with the AULD will be fillfilled and not on hold for years.
     
  8. billairboy

    billairboy Member

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    Yes, It's a bit hard do guess the weekly payout because of lack of data, with CLD it was much easier because we at least had some history of how the return was. In this case i would wait a bit to see how the return is before buying any deeds. Well, maybe buy one just to be able to follow the return and wait for how it develops.
     
  9. Tzepu

    Tzepu Member

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    I'm sure many ppl are thinking about it atm.

    I also like CLDs and AUD as you call them looked interesting in the beginning.

    You compared with the total activity on Arkadia but a more fair bet is to compare with FOMA or HELL because that's what it is, a really big FOMA.

    On the FOMA mining style most go with bigger amps and MOST loot come in globals. Without globaling you find your inventory almost empty after a run. :D[TABLE="class: dataTable, width: 800"]

    [TD="class: TableRow"]F.O.M.A Main Arena[/TD]
    [TD="class: TableRow rightAlignText"]372.00[/TD]
    [TD="class: TableRow rightAlignText"]91.00[/TD]
    [TD="class: TableRow rightAlignText"]44 376.00 PED[/TD]

    [TD="class: TableRow"]F.O.M.A. - FORTUNA[/TD]
    [TD="class: TableRow rightAlignText"]1 216.00[/TD]
    [TD="class: TableRow rightAlignText"]124.00[/TD]
    [TD="class: TableRow rightAlignText"]112 940.00 PED[/TD]

    [TD="class: TableRow"]F.O.M.A. -- FORTUNA[/TD]
    [TD="class: TableRow rightAlignText"]890.00[/TD]
    [TD="class: TableRow rightAlignText"]102.00[/TD]
    [TD="class: TableRow rightAlignText"]73 843.00 PED
    [/TD]
    [/TABLE]

    That's the FOMA activity last 7 days from tracker, roughly 200k ped in globals, i would say 300k-350k in total mining loot.
    350 000 * 5% = 17 500 / 200 000 deeds = 0.0875 so 9pec/deed

    CLD at 1400 ped each, making 4ped/week (they are selling for less and making a bit less in average but I'll go with these numbers for a overall picture)
    1400 / 50 = 28 deeds and 4 / 28 = 0.1428 so 14pec/deed to be somewhat comparable (same as your calculation i see)

    To sum it up, in the beginning, after the initial excitement passes, I doubt the activity in the Underground will be more than FOMA unless there's something really nice in there.

    Will the AUD sell? ofc, I'll buy some too but I think it will take a few months untill all are sold. (let's not forget it's 1 mil $)
    I'm pretty sure the income from them will also improve overtime because the A team do a great job, better than any other planet partner and I'm sure they'll manage to make the place interesting.

    Overall if underground income goes up a lot means a lot of activity, activity that will be mostly by caly born players (it's mostly old payers that do crazy lvl 13 mining) so CLDs will benefit from it too, win win :)
     
  10. Ido

    Ido Member

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    Good point : ) But since you can't have both .. which would you choose ... CLD's are readily available to be picked up from auction just the same as AUD will be next week..

    If you have ped for more .. lets say you have 2700 ped .. do you go for 2 CLD? or 54 AUD? Im leaning towards the CLD since your comparison 9pec vs 14pec payout .. is 1.5x more on CLD but I so want to try this new thing out :D

    Can't make up my mind : )

    Ido

    As far as i can see Planet Arkadia makes NO promises on the AUD :D
     
  11. remontoire

    remontoire Member

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    Will the instances in Arkadia Underground be taxed? This is important question in determining the returns, and I am not sure if there has been a clear answer. Also, it might be underground ends up being more balanced in hunting vs mining than FOMA, which has not had decent hunting for ages.
     
  12. May

    May Active Member

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    Think that's mentioned here by David:

     
  13. billyjeanruby

    billyjeanruby Member

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    Taxed or not, I think Vaults are an attraction to the whole project and adding value at AUD investement after all.
    My estimate as far I can see what is happening around before even AUD comes out:
    in short term I'm predict an impact and a "downhill" at CLD price as also at F.O.M.A./Hell income.
    If Underground appear to be "interesting" in long term, then that impact might be change the.. "universe landscape" for good.
     
  14. BB Global

    BB Global Member

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    It ALL depends on how attractive the loot (and MU of that loot) appears to the customers of Arkadia.


    [TD="colspan: 9"]Arkadia Underground Deeds – Exemplar[/TD]



    [TD="colspan: 8"]Returns on Server Issued Loot[/TD]

































































































































































































































































































































































































    Deed Volume
    5k PED 10k PED 15k PED 50k PED 100k PED 250k PED 500k PED 1mil PED
    1 0.00125 0.0025 0.00375 0.0125 0.025 0.0625 0.125 0.25
    2 0.0025 0.005 0.0075 0.025 0.05 0.125 0.25 0.5
    3 0.00375 0.0075 0.01125 0.0375 0.075 0.1875 0.375 0.75
    4 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.05 0.1 0.25 0.5 1
    5 0.00625 0.0125 0.01875 0.0625 0.125 0.3125 0.625 1.25
    10 0.0125 0.025 0.0375 0.125 0.25 0.625 1.25 2.5
    15 0.01875 0.0375 0.05625 0.1875 0.375 0.9375 1.875 3.75
    20 0.025 0.05 0.075 0.25 0.5 1.25 2.5 5
    25 0.03125 0.0625 0.09375 0.3125 0.625 1.5625 3.125 6.25
    50 0.0625 0.125 0.1875 0.625 1.25 3.125 6.25 12.5
    75 0.09375 0.1875 0.28125 0.9375 1.875 4.6875 9.375 18.75
    100 0.125 0.25 0.375 1.25 2.5 6.25 12.5 25
    150 0.1875 0.375 0.5625 1.875 3.75 9.375 18.75 37.5
    300 0.375 0.75 1.125 3.75 7.5 18.75 37.5 75
    450 0.5625 1.125 1.6875 5.625 11.25 28.125 56.25 112.5
    600 0.75 1.5 2.25 7.5 15 37.5 75 150
    750 0.9375 1.875 2.8125 9.375 18.75 46.875 93.75 187.5
    1000 1.25 2.5 3.75 12.5 25 62.5 125 250
    1250 1.5625 3.125 4.6875 15.625 31.25 78.125 156.25 312.5
    1500 1.875 3.75 5.625 18.75 37.5 93.75 187.5 375
    1750 2.1875 4.375 6.5625 21.875 43.75 109.375 218.75 437.5
    2000 2.5 5 7.5 25 50 125 250 500
    3000 3.75 7.5 11.25 37.5 75 187.5 375 750
    4000 5 10 15 50 100 250 500 1000
    5000 6.25 12.5 18.75 62.5 125 312.5 625 1250
    10000 12.5 25 37.5 125 250 625 1250 2500
    15000 18.75 37.5 56.25 187.5 375 937.5 1875 3750
    20000 25 50 75 250 500 1250 2500 5000
    25000 31.25 62.5 93.75 312.5 625 1562.5 3125 6250
    50000 62.5 125 187.5 625 1250 3125 6250 12500
    75000 93.75 187.5 281.25 937.5 1875 4687.5 9375 18750
    100000 125 250 375 1250 2500 6250 12500 25000
    200000 250 500 750 2500 5000 12500 25000 50000
    The above table shows an example of how much, in peds, different tiers of Deed ownership offer at different volumes of issued loot.

    We've just had the thread on PCF describing the negative effect hoarding has on drop rates for rare oils/BTAU/ATAU etc (again, I'm so newb but I've seen this info posted several times previously) that the TT return of a land area diminishes as people realise what they are looking for is unobtainable.

    But it's 50k PED back to the community from every $100,000 returned as loot.


    $5k doesn't seem like a lot, and would take 200 times that amount for the Share Offer to break even, or $20mil in returned loot.

    Luckily returned loot can be rolled again, meaning the above shaves repeatedly if the dedicated hunter is dedicated. This has been proven as a realistic return from the loot server over time.



    Work out how much you want, then buy that many deeds :p

    It does fit with the 5-year rule.
     
  15. Neil

    Neil Adviser Pro Users Arkadia Adviser

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    Not to mention, you now have a very large number of people with a vested interest in promoting the underground...
     
  16. billyjeanruby

    billyjeanruby Member

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    ...few sec's ago from a "planet channel" conversation
    a player answers to awfull run comment
    [player]: "OMG whole universe is bugged I should go to ark underground get shit load of hof and global there too"

    LOL Neil :) you don't even need to promote. If it works it promoted itself
     
  17. BB Global

    BB Global Member

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  18. billairboy

    billairboy Member

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    With a 5 % tax I can't see that people will spend their majority of time playing in the underground instead on the tax-free planet land.
     
  19. Spike Black

    Spike Black Active Member

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    Doesn't that depend on where events and / or items drop.

    If you were told items dropped in the taxed area but all you would get is tt fodder in the untaxed where would you spend your time?
     
  20. billairboy

    billairboy Member

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    Well, if many people hunt and mine the same thing it would probably not have so high markup. That's the problem, if a lot players players are there, the markup will drop on most of the loot from the area.
     

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