Ardorjies Experiment of Kills per Hunt on Hadraada

Runs #201 - #225
It took me a long time to do these hunts and then post about it too. The results of these runs are unfortuatly nothing to be proud of.

The progress I've made include (the number between brackets is the hunt-number):
Mission: none
Skills: 5400 Anatomy (217); 1000 Coolness (225)
Proffessions: 31 Knifefighter (Hit) (211)
Rare item: none

First table, the Return (%) of each KpH and the difference to the Average Return (%) of hunts #176 to #200.

Kill per Hunt	Hunts done	Hadraadaas	Return (%)	Diff. (%)	Globals (PED
10 KpH	12	120	115,453	+32,423	27
30 KpH	04	120	079,990	-03,040	---
60 KpH	05	300	084,645	+01,593	30, 25, 12
90 KpH	02	180	071,933	-11,098	---
120 KpH	---	---	---,---	--,---	---
150 KpH	---	---	---,---	--,---	---
200 KpH	01	200	069,733	-13,298	---
225 KpH	01	225	084,426	+01,395	19
Total	25	1.145	083,031

Globals (best 3):

First global in this streak of 25 runs on the very first run and it remains the best.


Instand profit on a 10KpH, love it.


And then, at run #209, the globals all but dried-up. I got only two more at run #213 worth 12 PED and the last at run #224 worth 19 PED, and that was the only thing to note for the run #224 was a 225KpH. Boohoo.

Second table, bit of copy-paste from the first and the cost to kill a Hadraada on average. A negative number under 'Diff. (PED)' means that the cost per kill is lower then the average of all hunts combined, and thus that's good (green).

Kill per Hunt	Hunts done	Hadraadaas	Cost (PED)	Diff. (PED)
10 KpH	12	120	0,88953	+0,00841
30 KpH	04	120	0,87103	-0,01008
60 KpH	05	300	0,86854	-0,01257
90 KpH	02	180	0,89966	+0,01854
120 KpH	---	---	-,-----	--,----
150 KpH	---	---	-,-----	--,-----
200 KpH	01	200	0,86707	-0,01405
225 KpH	01	225	0,86036	-0,02076
Total	25	1.145	0,88112

In short: The loot is swinging down, so on a positive note it can only get better! The average of all 225 hunts is still a fine looking 95,87%. That can be better for sure (I've seen 98% at some point), but nothing to cry about.
My goal at the start was to do 1800 kills for all KpHs, meaning a total of 334 hunts with 14.400 Hadraadaas killed. I am now two-third on the way.
Ardorj

 

Runs #226 - #250
I haven't hunted many Hadraada due to being rather absent from the game the last couple months. Without further ado, here's the new update.

The progress I've made include (the number between brackets is the hunt-number):
Mission: none
Skills: 141 HP (239)
Proffessions: 39 Swordsman (Dmg) (239); 32 Knifefighter (Hit) (244)
Rare item: none

First table, the Return (%) of each KpH and the difference to the Average Return (%) of hunts #226 to #250.

Kill per Hunt	Hunts done	Hadraadaas	Return (%)	Diff. (%)	Globals (PED
10 KpH	12	120	123,012	+30,014	30, 10, 17
30 KpH	05	150	079,948	-13,049	---
60 KpH	04	240	096,510	+03,512	29, 20, 13, 11
90 KpH	---	---	---,---	--,---	---
120 KpH	03	360	95,346	+02,348	23, 24, 12
150 KpH	01	150	76,689	-16,308	---
200 KpH	---	---	---,---	---,---	---
225 KpH	---	---	---,---	---,---	---
Total	25	1.020	092,998

Globals (best 3):

Best global from these 25 hunts on a 10KpH gave me a profit of >480%, lovely.


The first global of these 25 hunts and it remained second best. Good 60KpH run too, because a got a 20PEDder too then.


These was a bit of a lifesaver on a 120KpH, kickin' it into a profitable one. It's funny, whenever I'm doing longer runs of like 120KpH and above I always expect a global and am disappointed when I don't get one, while on the small runs like 10KpH and 30KpH I hardly consider them and become overjoyed when it hits.

Second table, bit of copy-paste from the first and the cost to kill a Hadraada on average. A negative number under 'Diff. (PED)' means that the cost per kill is lower then the average of all hunts combined, and thus that's good (green).

Kill per Hunt	Hunts done	Hadraadaas	Cost (PED)	Diff. (PED)
10 KpH	12	120	0,88008	+0,00213
30 KpH	05	150	0,87210	-0,00585
60 KpH	04	240	0,88254	+0,004597
90 KpH	---	---	-,-----	--,-----
120 KpH	03	360	0,87203	-0,00592
150 KpH	01	150	0,88108	+0,00313
200 KpH	---	---	-,-----	--,-----
225 KpH	--	---	-,-----	--,-----
Total	25	1.020	0,87795

Last time I was looking at a grand average of 95,87% and said that I should become better next time. I failed by going another 0,24% down. Right now I want to know more how many kills it takes to get to a worthy number. Meaning that a small hunt won't influence the average no longer, but I think that at the rate that I play this game I may never see this. I started this experiment before Shrapnel was introduced and I likely end it after yet another change in loot.

I might be on the increase in playtime at the moment and I am considering a restart of the Monthly Mêlée all the Way. Keep your eyes open for that thread!

Ardorj

 

Runs #251 - #275
Many 10 KpH's in this set of run, with a rather low result. It feels like I'm in a period of constant looking, but when I look at each run there are some good profits in there as well. Even so, the Hadraadaas don't like me as much as they did. If only they show me their love again in the form of a Hadraada Skull ... ahh, sweet dreams.
And I've always only exclusively done 10KpH and 30KpH these 25 runs, so the tables look empty. With one 225KpH down the middle. The power of randomness.

The progress I've made include (the number between brackets is the hunt-number):
Mission: none
Skills: 3400 Serendipity (265)
Proffessions: none
Rare item: none

First table, the Return (%) of each KpH and the difference to the Average Return (%) of hunts #226 to #250.

Kill per Hunt	Hunts done	Hadraadaas	Return (%)	Diff. (%)	Globals (PED
10 KpH	15	150	086,870	-02,852	14
30 KpH	09	270	102,380	+12,658	37, 22
60 KpH	---	---	---,---	--,---	---
90 KH	---	---	---,---	--,---	---
120 KpH	---	---	---,---	--,---	---
150 KpH	---	---	---,---	--,---	---
200 KpH	---	---	---,---	---,---	---
225 KpH	01	225	077,482	-12,240	19
Total	25	645	089,722

Globals (best 3):

First hunt of this set of 25 gave the best Global plus best return of 210%. I've had better then that, much better. Still, a fine global.


Another Global on a 30KpH (the 37PEDder was that as well), I think that's why the 30KpH came out with a profit too.


... and then things just dried up till this small one, and the only one, on the 225KpH. I have gotten just one more Global these 25 runs, a 14 PEDder. Oh, and I have too many of those Skildek P 40 (L)'s, anyone interested in like six of these?

Second table, bit of copy-paste from the first and the cost to kill a Hadraada on average. A negative number under 'Diff. (PED)' means that the cost per kill is lower then the average of all hunts combined, and thus that's good (green).

Kill per Hunt	Hunts done	Hadraadaas	Cost (PED)	Diff. (PED)
10 KpH	15	150	0,85353	-0,01447
30 KpH	09	270	0,89057	+0,02257
60 KpH	--	---	-,------	--,------
90 KpH	---	---	-,-----	--,-----
120 KpH	--	---	-,------	--,------
150 KpH	--	---	-,-----	--,-----
200 KpH	---	---	-,-----	--,-----
225 KpH	01	225	0,88197	+0,01397
Total	25	645	0,86800

I am also starting to set up a new experiment. It's going to be about the influence of other things you do along the hunting itself, for example: scanning, sweating, pet training. I have a notch that because I scan every creature I have a slightly bigger defense costs (sometimes they attack me while I'm scanning) and I want to know if that difference is noticable.
But ach well, still need 58 more hunts on this experiment before I start calculating and trying to form an answer.

Ardorj

 

Runs #276 - #300
I'm one of the slowest hunters to begin with, and haven't been very active the past half year to end with. With no further ado, here's the next set of 25 hunts of my experiment.
Oké, one more thing. You might question the worth of any conclusion since it's done across many VU's and changes in the loot. - I started when Explosives could still be looted! -

The progress I've made include (the number between brackets is the hunt-number):
Mission: none
Skills: 2800 Evade (280); 1200 Botany (283); 3400 Martial Arts (287)
Proffessions: Lvl 21 Evader (294)
Rare item: Blank Arkadian DNA Cartridge 3 (295)

First table, the Return (%) of each KpH and the difference to the Average Return (%) of hunts #276 to #300.

Kill per Hunt	Hunts done	Hadraadaas	Return (%)	Diff. (%)	Globals (PED)
10 KpH	11	110	154,132	+70,160	21, 52
30 KpH	06	180	066,431	-17,541	---
60 KpH	01	060	047,925	-36,046	---
90 KH	02	180	070,145	-13,826	11
120 KpH	---	---	---,---	--,---	---
150 KpH	01	150	060,754	-23,217	---
200 KpH	01	200	093,606	+09,634	10, 17
225 KpH	03	675	086,112	+02,140	10, 12
Total	25	1555	083,972

Globals (best 3):

It's my biggerst Hadraada global so far, the only global that applies to the old cap of 50PED. Even though it's just oils and scrapnel - I love it!


The second best is also like the first scored on a 10KpH, making those returns well ahead of the rest. I always enjoy these "instant profit global" as I call 'm.


It somehow feels a bit wrong to know that with three hunts done with 225KpH, none of those was with a global high enough to go into the Top 3 of the runs #276 - #300. Ahh, well, dynamic I guess?

Second table, bit of copy-paste from the first and the cost to kill a Hadraada on average. A negative number under 'Diff. (PED)' means that the cost per kill is lower then the average of all hunts combined, and thus that's good (green).

Kill per Hunt	Hunts done	Hadraadaas	Cost (PED)	Diff. (PED)
10 KpH	11	110	0,87141	-0,00850
30 KpH	06	180	0,89524	+0,01534
60 KpH	01	060	0,86957	-0,01034
90 KH	02	180	0,89588	-0,01597
120 KpH	---	---	-,------	--,------
150 KpH	01	150	0,85671	-0,02319
200 KpH	01	200	0,87802	-0,00189
225 KpH	03	675	0,88155	+0,00164
Total	25	1555	0,87991

Yesterday I've also made a new Excel-sheet that I should have done years before. It's to track every single hunt I do. Nothing special is on it yet, just two 10KpH runs with the Hadraadaas and three Carabok/ Gallard hunts. Maybe later today I'll make a new thread about my new Hunting Diary.

Ardorj

 

Runs #301- #334
I've completed my Hadraada-experiment some two weeks ago. I'm now going over my math-lessons again, that might take a while again. I did realize however that although every set of KpH has the same total Hadraada killed (1800), there are only 8 hunts with 225 KpH. For a good standard deviation, that is a little on the low side. I do want to complete the Hadraada Stage 5, I'm at 7.8k of 12.0k, so might as well do it the same way and up the number of 120; 150; 200; and 225 KpH.

The progress I've made include (the number between brackets is the hunt-number):
Mission: none
Skills: none
Proffessions: none
Rare item: none
What a way to end it lol!

First table, the Return (%) of each KpH and the difference to the Average Return (%) of hunts #301 to #334.

Kill per Hunt	Hunts done	Hadraadaas	Return (%)	Diff. (%)	Globals (PED)
10 KpH	18	180	75,214	-16,545	---
30 KpH	05	150	095,769	+04,009	24
60 KpH	03	180	077,025	-14,735	---
90 KH	02	180	110,740	+18,980	13; 11
120 KpH	03	360	090,511	-01,249	28; 25; 11
150 KpH	02	300	094,743	+02,983	32; 24
200 KpH	01	200	095,619	+03,859	22; 11
225 KpH	--	---	---,---	--,---	---
Total	34	1550	091,760

Globals (best 3):

Items in the loot are always nice I'd say, even if it's just a Range-amp that is starting to clog my Storage.


Not in the screenshot: Piron PLR-12 (L) with a value of 17.71 PED.


Not in the screenshot, I guess from the log that it was another Bullseye I (L). Good way to end a mêlée-experiment: getting a ranged-item on the three best globals!

Second table, bit of copy-paste from the first and the cost to kill a Hadraada on average. A negative number under 'Diff. (PED)' means that the cost per kill is lower then the average of all hunts combined, and thus that's good (green).

Kill per Hunt	Hunts done	Hadraadaas	Cost (PED)	Diff. (PED)
10 KpH	18	180	0,88511	+0,00083
30 KpH	05	150	0,87759	-0,00668
60 KpH	03	180	0,87926	-0,00502
90 KH	02	180	0,89228	+0,00801
120 KpH	03	360	0,88980	+0,00553
150 KpH	02	300	0,88198	-0,00229
200 KpH	01	200	0,88970	+0,00542
225 KpH	--	---	-,----	--,-----
Total	25	1555	0,87991

I ended this Experiment with a return of a neat 93,69%.
Calculations will follow, but first 24 Hours Mêlée all the Way!

Ardorj

 

I should have said something a few days earlier. I kept probing this mob for a long time and returns were always prohibiting, until that suddenly changed around Jan 4th or 5th. I then made a push to complete stage 5 (was over 7k kills to go) and had a great ride as evidenced here. Returns were above 100% for a little while! I was to recommend to anyone on the same quest to join the party and said something once or twice in chat, but it didn't occur to me to look here. Since then it's been very choppy and I'm reluctant to risk my last peds. Good luck!

 

I feel that too much time has passed before I posted anything constructive about my experiment on the Kills per Hunt at the Hadraadaas. Before I finally kick-off with anything let me begin with two notes, or warnings.

First: there will be quite some words like "standard deviation, mean, probability, sigma" in this post. So if your eyes start to water and you feel the goosebumps coming-up as if you were reading a good horror story, then I suggest you don't go any further (or you do, it's your call really).
Second: I am shamed to admit that this is yet no conclusion. I really can't tell with any kind of 95% or even 75% propability if it matters how many mobs you kill per hunt or not. I am (re)learning quite a bit about statistics, but it takes time as one can imagine. I've still a long way to go, it feels as if when one can meassure real-life skills like Entropian skills, that I'm not even at level 10 Statistic Calculater.

And now for the real numbers, as far as they go. For every set of hunts I've calculated the arithic mean, using not the percentages, but the total input vs. output. The results are in the following table:

Kill per Hunt	Mean (%)
10 KpH	102
30 KpH	097
60 KpH	087
90 KpH	092
120 KpH	086
150 KpH	104
200 KpH	093
225 KpH	088

Yes, you should deviatly do hunts with as little kills as possible, seeing that I got 102% for the 10KpH, and as little as 88% for the 225KpH. But no, 150KpH tops that with 104%. And really, all the others aren't that far apart either, are they? Now the standard deviation comes into play, a kind of measure of how spread-out a set of samples are. When they are normally distributed, then one can expect to get 68% from u-1s to u+1s; 95% from u-2s to u+2s; 99.7% from u-3s to u+3s; with u = sample mean, s = standard deviation of the samples.
Before starting with this Hadraada-Experiment I envisioned that the results would be something like this (maybe I should have warned at the beginning that paint-jobs from me would be included as well. Ach so, you already got warned that for some this might be more like a horror-post. )

With herein KpH-A > KpH-B (hence it is a bit fatter). The red area is the area where there is a probability for both KpH's to fall into. So when that area is small, then I can conclude that it does matter how many mobs you kill each hunt, and when that red area is large, then the graphs are almost superenposed on each other and therefore it won't matter how many mobs you kill each hunt.
Unfortuatly, it looks more something like the follow Mondriaan-imitation:

The standard deviations for all KpH's are simply too large. I think the following table will speak for itself:

Kill per Hunt	Mean (%)	Stand.Dev.	u-3s to u+3s
10 KpH	102	104	-210 | 414
30 KpH	097	051	-056 | 249
60 KpH	087	024	015 | 160
90 KpH	092	027	012 | 173
120 KpH	086	017	035 | 137
150 KpH	104	031	012 | 195
200 KpH	093	014	053 | 134
225 KpH	088	012	053 | 123

Lately, I've come to understand mathematicly what is intuitivly logical that the more samples you take, the better one is able to get near the population mean. This is called the Central Limit Theorem. It says that the 225KpH will get the tightest range, and that is more or less true. It also says that you need a large enough amount of samples, preferably more then thirty, to get normal distributin of the sample distribution.
I did only 8 for the 225KpH.
I've started doing more of the 225KpH's this week, unfortuatly for me, the Stand.Dev. is still ~12. But that's with only 2 more, I'm not panicking yet lol.
Also interesting to note, is that I made graphs in Excell showing the distribution of the different KpH's. I won't show you guys every one, here is the 10KpH and the 225KpH superinposed.

Interesting, to me, is that the 10KpH shows like three bumps, one at 50%, second at ~135%, last at ~170%. This got me thinking how it really is for each kill ... so I started noting the loot-value for each kill on the last 225KpH lol.
Yes, I know I am crazy.
What do I know about how many mobs is best to kill per hunt? I know next to nothing about that. Statisticly I would say that a 10.000KpH will be good, to stay on the save-side. But the propability of anyone doing hunts of that size is not statisticaly possible, now is it?

Stay tuned till I did more 225KpH's, at least till I've completed Stage IV.

Ardorj