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Ardorjies Experiment of Kills per Hunt on Hadraada

Discussion in 'Hunting' started by Ardorj, Jun 14, 2014.

  1. Ardorj

    Ardorj Active Member Pro Users

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    Runs #201 - #225
    It took me a long time to do these hunts and then post about it too. The results of these runs are unfortuatly nothing to be proud of.

    The progress I've made include (the number between brackets is the hunt-number):
    Mission: none
    Skills: 5400 Anatomy (217); 1000 Coolness (225)
    Proffessions: 31 Knifefighter (Hit) (211)
    Rare item: none


    First table, the Return (%) of each KpH and the difference to the Average Return (%) of hunts #176 to #200.
    Kill per HuntHunts doneHadraadaasReturn (%)Diff. (%)Globals (PED
    10 KpH12120115,453+32,42327
    30 KpH04120079,990-03,040---
    60 KpH05300084,645+01,59330, 25, 12
    90 KpH02180071,933-11,098---
    120 KpH---------,-----,------
    150 KpH---------,-----,------
    200 KpH01200069,733-13,298---
    225 KpH01225084,426+01,39519
    Total251.145083,031
    Globals (best 3):
    Hadraada 072.jpg
    First global in this streak of 25 runs on the very first run and it remains the best.

    Hadraada 073.jpg
    Instand profit on a 10KpH, love it.

    Hadraada 074.jpg
    And then, at run #209, the globals all but dried-up. I got only two more at run #213 worth 12 PED and the last at run #224 worth 19 PED, and that was the only thing to note for the run #224 was a 225KpH. Boohoo.

    Second table, bit of copy-paste from the first and the cost to kill a Hadraada on average. A negative number under 'Diff. (PED)' means that the cost per kill is lower then the average of all hunts combined, and thus that's good (green).

    Kill per HuntHunts doneHadraadaasCost (PED)Diff. (PED)
    10 KpH121200,88953+0,00841
    30 KpH041200,87103-0,01008
    60 KpH053000,86854-0,01257
    90 KpH021800,89966+0,01854
    120 KpH-------,-------,----
    150 KpH-------,-------,-----
    200 KpH012000,86707-0,01405
    225 KpH012250,86036-0,02076
    Total251.1450,88112
    In short: The loot is swinging down, so on a positive note it can only get better! The average of all 225 hunts is still a fine looking 95,87%. That can be better for sure (I've seen 98% at some point), but nothing to cry about.
    My goal at the start was to do 1800 kills for all KpHs, meaning a total of 334 hunts with 14.400 Hadraadaas killed. I am now two-third on the way.
    Ardorj :)
     
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  2. Ardorj

    Ardorj Active Member Pro Users

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    Runs #226 - #250
    I haven't hunted many Hadraada due to being rather absent from the game the last couple months. Without further ado, here's the new update.

    The progress I've made include (the number between brackets is the hunt-number):
    Mission: none
    Skills: 141 HP (239)
    Proffessions: 39 Swordsman (Dmg) (239); 32 Knifefighter (Hit) (244)
    Rare item: none


    First table, the Return (%) of each KpH and the difference to the Average Return (%) of hunts #226 to #250.
    Kill per HuntHunts doneHadraadaasReturn (%)Diff. (%)Globals (PED
    10 KpH12120123,012+30,01430, 10, 17
    30 KpH05150079,948-13,049---
    60 KpH04240096,510+03,51229, 20, 13, 11
    90 KpH---------,-----,------
    120 KpH0336095,346+02,34823, 24, 12
    150 KpH0115076,689-16,308---
    200 KpH---------,------,------
    225 KpH---------,------,------
    Total251.020092,998
    Globals (best 3):
    Hadraada 081.jpg
    Best global from these 25 hunts on a 10KpH gave me a profit of >480%, lovely.

    Hadraada 078.jpg
    The first global of these 25 hunts and it remained second best. Good 60KpH run too, because a got a 20PEDder too then.

    Hadraada 087.jpg
    These was a bit of a lifesaver on a 120KpH, kickin' it into a profitable one. It's funny, whenever I'm doing longer runs of like 120KpH and above I always expect a global and am disappointed when I don't get one, while on the small runs like 10KpH and 30KpH I hardly consider them and become overjoyed when it hits.

    Second table, bit of copy-paste from the first and the cost to kill a Hadraada on average. A negative number under 'Diff. (PED)' means that the cost per kill is lower then the average of all hunts combined, and thus that's good (green).

    Kill per HuntHunts doneHadraadaasCost (PED)Diff. (PED)
    10 KpH121200,88008+0,00213
    30 KpH051500,87210-0,00585
    60 KpH042400,88254+0,004597
    90 KpH-------,-------,-----
    120 KpH033600,87203-0,00592
    150 KpH011500,88108+0,00313
    200 KpH-------,-------,-----
    225 KpH------,-------,-----
    Total251.0200,87795
    Last time I was looking at a grand average of 95,87% and said that I should become better next time. I failed by going another 0,24% down. Right now I want to know more how many kills it takes to get to a worthy number. Meaning that a small hunt won't influence the average no longer, but I think that at the rate that I play this game I may never see this. I started this experiment before Shrapnel was introduced and I likely end it after yet another change in loot.

    I might be on the increase in playtime at the moment and I am considering a restart of the Monthly Mêlée all the Way. Keep your eyes open for that thread!

    Ardorj :)
     
  3. Ardorj

    Ardorj Active Member Pro Users

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    Runs #251 - #275
    Many 10 KpH's in this set of run, with a rather low result. It feels like I'm in a period of constant looking, but when I look at each run there are some good profits in there as well. Even so, the Hadraadaas don't like me as much as they did. If only they show me their love again in the form of a Hadraada Skull ... ahh, sweet dreams.
    And I've always only exclusively done 10KpH and 30KpH these 25 runs, so the tables look empty. With one 225KpH down the middle. The power of randomness.

    The progress I've made include (the number between brackets is the hunt-number):
    Mission: none
    Skills: 3400 Serendipity (265)
    Proffessions: none
    Rare item: none


    First table, the Return (%) of each KpH and the difference to the Average Return (%) of hunts #226 to #250.
    Kill per HuntHunts doneHadraadaasReturn (%)Diff. (%)Globals (PED
    10 KpH15150086,870-02,85214
    30 KpH09270102,380+12,65837, 22
    60 KpH---------,-----,------
    90 KH---------,-----,------
    120 KpH---------,-----,------
    150 KpH---------,-----,------
    200 KpH---------,------,------
    225 KpH01225077,482-12,24019
    Total25645089,722
    Globals (best 3):
    Hadraada 089B.jpg
    First hunt of this set of 25 gave the best Global plus best return of 210%. I've had better then that, much better. Still, a fine global.

    Hadraada 090.jpg
    Another Global on a 30KpH (the 37PEDder was that as well), I think that's why the 30KpH came out with a profit too.

    Hadraada 092.jpg
    ... and then things just dried up till this small one, and the only one, on the 225KpH. I have gotten just one more Global these 25 runs, a 14 PEDder. Oh, and I have too many of those Skildek P 40 (L)'s, anyone interested in like six of these?

    Second table, bit of copy-paste from the first and the cost to kill a Hadraada on average. A negative number under 'Diff. (PED)' means that the cost per kill is lower then the average of all hunts combined, and thus that's good (green).

    Kill per HuntHunts doneHadraadaasCost (PED)Diff. (PED)
    10 KpH151500,85353-0,01447
    30 KpH092700,89057+0,02257
    60 KpH------,--------,------
    90 KpH-------,-------,-----
    120 KpH------,--------,------
    150 KpH------,-------,-----
    200 KpH-------,-------,-----
    225 KpH012250,88197+0,01397
    Total256450,86800
    I am also starting to set up a new experiment. It's going to be about the influence of other things you do along the hunting itself, for example: scanning, sweating, pet training. I have a notch that because I scan every creature I have a slightly bigger defense costs (sometimes they attack me while I'm scanning) and I want to know if that difference is noticable.
    But ach well, still need 58 more hunts on this experiment before I start calculating and trying to form an answer.

    Ardorj :)
     
  4. Ardorj

    Ardorj Active Member Pro Users

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    Runs #276 - #300
    I'm one of the slowest hunters to begin with, and haven't been very active the past half year to end with. With no further ado, here's the next set of 25 hunts of my experiment.
    Oké, one more thing. You might question the worth of any conclusion since it's done across many VU's and changes in the loot. - I started when Explosives could still be looted! -

    The progress I've made include (the number between brackets is the hunt-number):
    Mission: none
    Skills: 2800 Evade (280); 1200 Botany (283); 3400 Martial Arts (287)
    Proffessions: Lvl 21 Evader (294)
    Rare item: Blank Arkadian DNA Cartridge 3 (295)


    First table, the Return (%) of each KpH and the difference to the Average Return (%) of hunts #276 to #300.
    Kill per HuntHunts doneHadraadaasReturn (%)Diff. (%)Globals (PED)
    10 KpH11110154,132+70,16021, 52
    30 KpH06180066,431-17,541---
    60 KpH01060047,925-36,046---
    90 KH02180070,145-13,82611
    120 KpH---------,-----,------
    150 KpH01150060,754-23,217---
    200 KpH01200093,606+09,63410, 17
    225 KpH03675086,112+02,14010, 12
    Total251555083,972
    Globals (best 3):
    Hadraada 099.jpg
    It's my biggerst Hadraada global so far, the only global that applies to the old cap of 50PED. Even though it's just oils and scrapnel - I love it!

    Hadraada 094.jpg
    The second best is also like the first scored on a 10KpH, making those returns well ahead of the rest. I always enjoy these "instant profit global" as I call 'm.

    Hadraada 094.jpg
    It somehow feels a bit wrong to know that with three hunts done with 225KpH, none of those was with a global high enough to go into the Top 3 of the runs #276 - #300. Ahh, well, dynamic I guess?

    Second table, bit of copy-paste from the first and the cost to kill a Hadraada on average. A negative number under 'Diff. (PED)' means that the cost per kill is lower then the average of all hunts combined, and thus that's good (green).

    Kill per HuntHunts doneHadraadaasCost (PED)Diff. (PED)
    10 KpH111100,87141-0,00850
    30 KpH061800,89524+0,01534
    60 KpH010600,86957-0,01034
    90 KH021800,89588-0,01597
    120 KpH-------,--------,------
    150 KpH011500,85671-0,02319
    200 KpH012000,87802-0,00189
    225 KpH036750,88155+0,00164
    Total2515550,87991
    Yesterday I've also made a new Excel-sheet that I should have done years before. It's to track every single hunt I do. Nothing special is on it yet, just two 10KpH runs with the Hadraadaas and three Carabok/ Gallard hunts. Maybe later today I'll make a new thread about my new Hunting Diary.

    Ardorj :)
     

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  5. Ardorj

    Ardorj Active Member Pro Users

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    Runs #301- #334
    I've completed my Hadraada-experiment some two weeks ago. I'm now going over my math-lessons again, that might take a while again. I did realize however that although every set of KpH has the same total Hadraada killed (1800), there are only 8 hunts with 225 KpH. For a good standard deviation, that is a little on the low side. I do want to complete the Hadraada Stage 5, I'm at 7.8k of 12.0k, so might as well do it the same way and up the number of 120; 150; 200; and 225 KpH.

    The progress I've made include (the number between brackets is the hunt-number):
    Mission: none
    Skills: none
    Proffessions: none
    Rare item: none
    What a way to end it lol!


    First table, the Return (%) of each KpH and the difference to the Average Return (%) of hunts #301 to #334.
    Kill per HuntHunts doneHadraadaasReturn (%)Diff. (%)Globals (PED)
    10 KpH1818075,214-16,545---
    30 KpH05150095,769+04,00924
    60 KpH03180077,025-14,735---
    90 KH02180110,740+18,98013; 11
    120 KpH03360090,511-01,24928; 25; 11
    150 KpH02300094,743+02,98332; 24
    200 KpH01200095,619+03,85922; 11
    225 KpH--------,-----,------
    Total341550091,760
    Globals (best 3):
    Hadraada 108.jpg
    Items in the loot are always nice I'd say, even if it's just a Range-amp that is starting to clog my Storage.

    Hadraada 101.jpg
    Not in the screenshot: Piron PLR-12 (L) with a value of 17.71 PED.

    Hadraada 107.jpg
    Not in the screenshot, I guess from the log that it was another Bullseye I (L). Good way to end a mêlée-experiment: getting a ranged-item on the three best globals! :playful:

    Second table, bit of copy-paste from the first and the cost to kill a Hadraada on average. A negative number under 'Diff. (PED)' means that the cost per kill is lower then the average of all hunts combined, and thus that's good (green).

    Kill per HuntHunts doneHadraadaasCost (PED)Diff. (PED)
    10 KpH181800,88511+0,00083
    30 KpH051500,87759-0,00668
    60 KpH031800,87926-0,00502
    90 KH021800,89228+0,00801
    120 KpH033600,88980+0,00553
    150 KpH023000,88198-0,00229
    200 KpH012000,88970+0,00542
    225 KpH------,------,-----
    Total2515550,87991
    I ended this Experiment with a return of a neat 93,69%.
    Calculations will follow, but first 24 Hours Mêlée all the Way!

    Ardorj :)
     
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  6. San

    San Well-Known Member

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    I should have said something a few days earlier. I kept probing this mob for a long time and returns were always prohibiting, until that suddenly changed around Jan 4th or 5th. I then made a push to complete stage 5 (was over 7k kills to go) and had a great ride as evidenced here. Returns were above 100% for a little while! I was to recommend to anyone on the same quest to join the party and said something once or twice in chat, but it didn't occur to me to look here. Since then it's been very choppy and I'm reluctant to risk my last peds. Good luck!
     
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  7. Ardorj

    Ardorj Active Member Pro Users

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    I feel that too much time has passed before I posted anything constructive about my experiment on the Kills per Hunt at the Hadraadaas. Before I finally kick-off with anything let me begin with two notes, or warnings.

    First: there will be quite some words like "standard deviation, mean, probability, sigma" in this post. So if your eyes start to water and you feel the goosebumps coming-up as if you were reading a good horror story, then I suggest you don't go any further (or you do, it's your call really).
    Second: I am shamed to admit that this is yet no conclusion. I really can't tell with any kind of 95% or even 75% propability if it matters how many mobs you kill per hunt or not. I am (re)learning quite a bit about statistics, but it takes time as one can imagine. I've still a long way to go, it feels as if when one can meassure real-life skills like Entropian skills, that I'm not even at level 10 Statistic Calculater.

    And now for the real numbers, as far as they go. For every set of hunts I've calculated the arithic mean, using not the percentages, but the total input vs. output. The results are in the following table:
    Kill per HuntMean (%)
    10 KpH102
    30 KpH097
    60 KpH087
    90 KpH092
    120 KpH086
    150 KpH104
    200 KpH093
    225 KpH088
    Yes, you should deviatly do hunts with as little kills as possible, seeing that I got 102% for the 10KpH, and as little as 88% for the 225KpH. But no, 150KpH tops that with 104%. And really, all the others aren't that far apart either, are they? Now the standard deviation comes into play, a kind of measure of how spread-out a set of samples are. When they are normally distributed, then one can expect to get 68% from u-1s to u+1s; 95% from u-2s to u+2s; 99.7% from u-3s to u+3s; with u = sample mean, s = standard deviation of the samples.
    Before starting with this Hadraada-Experiment I envisioned that the results would be something like this (maybe I should have warned at the beginning that paint-jobs from me would be included as well. Ach so, you already got warned that for some this might be more like a horror-post. :vulcan:)
    Normal Distribution 1.png
    With herein KpH-A > KpH-B (hence it is a bit fatter). The red area is the area where there is a probability for both KpH's to fall into. So when that area is small, then I can conclude that it does matter how many mobs you kill each hunt, and when that red area is large, then the graphs are almost superenposed on each other and therefore it won't matter how many mobs you kill each hunt.
    Unfortuatly, it looks more something like the follow Mondriaan-imitation:
    Normal Distribution 2.png
    The standard deviations for all KpH's are simply too large. I think the following table will speak for itself:
    Kill per HuntMean (%)Stand.Dev.u-3s to u+3s
    10 KpH102104-210 | 414
    30 KpH097051-056 | 249
    60 KpH087024015 | 160
    90 KpH092027012 | 173
    120 KpH086017035 | 137
    150 KpH104031012 | 195
    200 KpH093014053 | 134
    225 KpH088012053 | 123
    Lately, I've come to understand mathematicly what is intuitivly logical that the more samples you take, the better one is able to get near the population mean. This is called the Central Limit Theorem. It says that the 225KpH will get the tightest range, and that is more or less true. It also says that you need a large enough amount of samples, preferably more then thirty, to get normal distributin of the sample distribution.
    I did only 8 for the 225KpH.
    I've started doing more of the 225KpH's this week, unfortuatly for me, the Stand.Dev. is still ~12. But that's with only 2 more, I'm not panicking yet lol.
    Also interesting to note, is that I made graphs in Excell showing the distribution of the different KpH's. I won't show you guys every one, here is the 10KpH and the 225KpH superinposed.
    Normal Distribution 3 - 10KpH.png
    Interesting, to me, is that the 10KpH shows like three bumps, one at 50%, second at ~135%, last at ~170%. This got me thinking how it really is for each kill ... so I started noting the loot-value for each kill on the last 225KpH lol.
    Yes, I know I am crazy. :clown:
    What do I know about how many mobs is best to kill per hunt? I know next to nothing about that. Statisticly I would say that a 10.000KpH will be good, to stay on the save-side. But the propability of anyone doing hunts of that size is not statisticaly possible, now is it? :shifty:

    Stay tuned till I did more 225KpH's, at least till I've completed Stage IV.

    Ardorj :)
     
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