Watch This Arkadian Underground Deed (AUD) Payout History

Removed the background image Snape.
It looks a bit better now and fits the post better

If people wanna help with getting the data into the wiki and the table in Snape's post got to the following page and add your data:
http://www.entropiaplanets.com/wiki/Arkadia_Underground_Deeds

 

It would be highly helpful if the first post in this thread gave the average ROI investment. That means more to me tracking this then the daily return does.

 

Add up the daily return and divide by the number of days. How hard can it be?

 

Its called convenience, I like this forum but if it doesn't give me the avg I will just bookmark the wiki page.

I see it now had to highlight it, Thank you.

 

sorry guys was not aware of the dark forum Style which makes the average unreadable. Lemme get into that

 

and it is red now, so should be visible on all styles (I hope)

 

Great job mate! keep up the good work! :thumbup:

 

I know I'm going to get a Hogwarts beating for this but I really need to know what an ROI is. I thought I knew but my daily payout for the last few days has been one PEC per deed, so apparently I don't. By the graph it looks like I'm supposed to either earn 50 PEC per deed on a daily basis, or seven point three percent of the ROI, which I had guessed was, "return of investment". Clearly I'm missing something.
Entropia is the closest thing to a economics class I have, so a lot of this is new territory to me. I'm flailing in the dark here. Could you shed some light for me?

 

Hi,

ROI% in this context is the estimated annual return as a % of the cost of one deed.

Looking at the graph in post one, we see that the most recent payout was 1 pec per deed. So if we got 1 pec per day for a year we are looking at 3.65 ped per year. As a percentage of the deed cost that's 3.65/50 = approx 7.3%.

Now looking at the payouts to date and averaging the daily payout, estimated ROI% is currently 10.85%. So in a year you might expect to see a return of 50*10.85% = 5.43 ped for each deed you own.

Of course it's anybody's guess as to whether current returns are indicative of the long term outlook.

Another way of stating ROI is to talk about the time it would take to make your money back on your investment. Based on 10.85% pa, that version of ROI would be 100/10.85 = 9.22 years.

One of the ways I like to evaluate this is to look at the opportunity cost of using the peds elsewhere. Examples might include:
Land Area in game - potentially higher returns but requires active management and ongoing maintenance costs plus a much higher investment amount
CLD - very similar to AUD in risk profile but requires around 1k ped per deed. Worth looking at if you have the peds.
Cycling ped in your profession of choice - how confident are you that you can come out ahead mining, hunting or crafting. Most players don't.
If you are a depositor. Investments in game have the potential to lower your total deposits over time so you are saving on the deposit fees.

Real life savings account. Low risk. Lower interest. Taxed.
Real life investment account. Equivalent or higher risk. Taxed
etc.

Personally I think 10% is not bad for an untaxed investment and the real issue for me is whether the AUD will hold its initial value of 50 ped per deed. So I only invest what I can afford to lose. Plus I profit from crafting so that gets priority for my peds as even though the profit margin is in the same ballpark, I prefer to actively manage my in game investments. But so far I have 40 deeds and I plan to grow that over time.

Hope that helps.
Regards,
KikkiJikki

 

For my experience the ROI in long term will be over 10 years, we shouldn't consider the very first weeks since at launch everything in EU is way over it's real potential.

For what I have to share the only good thing about AUD is the access to the investment, since with 50 ped you can't invest much elsewhere, but if you are aiming to invest, 50 peds is really not an amount you should consider to drop into it, so not that important at the end.

If we compare to RL investments it might be attractive someway, but we have to compare with others ingame investments first, and once we do the first thing we have to admit is that there are many better opportunities, with much more control into these, and last but not least, higher ROI.

Land Areas for example, the income is partially related to the activity a manager involves into events and so on...

Trading, expecially ore trading, offers an higher income with relatively work, and you own something that doesn't worth 0.00 TT, a security for investors.

Services, takes work but if you don't plan to invest 100k PED into "sit and wait" investments it gets more incomes for sure, and low amount of peds locked.

and so on... EU offers differents opportunity for smart partecipants. AUD seems very low attractive to my eyes, just my 2 pecs

 

in general your post was informative and your attitude towards the AU as a investment sound but i just wanted to correct what appears to be a misconception, from what i understand most countries with a functioning tax system expect you to pay taxes on all income, and not declaring income from a virtual world would be illegal, just because people pretend what happens on the internet is not real does not mean that the tax office in your country thinks the same way, and i know for a fact that in some european countries a very hefty "gaming" tax is applied as EU is not seen as a return on investment but as "winnings".
a minor quibble that is not unique to you, i do not understand how people can simultaneously say that AU can be a investment that reduces the need for deposits and mention the high initial cost of CLD's, you dont get much gameplay from 5.43 ped total a year so i do not really comprehend the reason or value of holding a small amount of AU deeds, unless one is on a budget and slowly saving up for a meaningful holding. since most people will not be holding single digit quantities of AU then surely the only meaningful comparison is based upon ROI (unless you want to bring up somewhat stickier topics such as security of "investment", which i dont).

 

Hi Fallen,

Regarding taxes, if I withdrew from the game to my bank account I might reasonably expect to have to declare that and deduct my deposits for that year also. It's a bit like the share market. It is neither taxable nor deductible until you convert the shares to cash. If you are a net depositor you will (should) never pay tax on in-game earnings.

Now on the other issue, I think that CLD and AUD are more or less equivalent in that they are passive investments that deliver a return that is basically activity based, though the calculation of the return is based on different activities. CLDs of course cost more per unit but if you are planning to invest at least 1 to 2 k then clearly it makes sense for you to compare the two to establish which is the better investment for you. I leave that as an exercise for the individual. Now in terms of reducing the need to deposit, I guess that depends on the way you play. Some deposit a fixed amount per week or month and it probably would not change that amount for them. Others, including me, deposit when and as needed, being mindful of how much we are spending so as to avoid becoming homeless, starving, needing to sell the children etc. If I have one AUD then in theory it takes a teensy bit longer before I need to deposit again. And it's the same theory with CLDs. Yes it's a piddling amount cause after all one AUD is an investment of only 5 dollars.

I have CLDs as well as AUDs but I guess there are a couple of reasons why I personally prefer AUDs.
1. I have a pretty strong commitment to Arkadia and growing the economy here, along with my in-game business. So I have confidence that the returns and value of AUD will grow over time. I think CLDs are pretty stable. I certainly don't believe there is any immanent danger of collapse in value or returns but I also don't see their roi growing much outside its current range. Of course that is just a personal view and quite subjective.
2. The lower unit price is going to allow me much better control over the size of my investment once all are sold and it becomes feasible to easily trade them. Right now, I tend to stress a bit over whether to buy or sell a CLD cos they are around 100 dollars each and so its a significant trade. Down track, if I have reasonable AUD holdings, then I can downsize it to free up some peds or increase it to temporarily park some peds and generate income fairly easily. All of that of course depends on AUDs being successful and reasonably stable in price. We shall see how that works out.

As I wrote in my ealier post I still prefer active investments (eg my business) over passive investments. Not only are the opportunities greater but it gives me greater satisfaction to use my peds that way. I like the challenge.

I hope that clarifies my position.
KikkiJikki

 

It certainly does.
However I think most people who buy them are going for the shorter term solution via selling them at auction. The markup is in the thousands already, so the one to twenty ratio is a very attractive enticement to buyers. Naturally the markup doesn't mean much when AUDs are still bountiful and cheap, but when the deed rush ends then supply dries up and the markup becomes more realistic, thus leading to a bigger payout. In my case I plan to sell one for that reason, to cover the expenses of my other deeds, plus a little interest, then sit on the rest for a rainy day.
Either way will require time for it to mature properly, so the important part I guess is to plan what to do with your deed before you buy, and then stand by it. Oh, and not mortgage your house in the process.
Like you said. 'Don't spend more then you can safely part with'.

 

When thinking about income over time, keep in mind that there's no reason to expect the income to remain at its current level. Arkadia is still just starting out in terms of playerbase and as players increase the activity in the underground would be expected to increase as well. Also, currently there isn't much MU to be found in the underground. We seem to be coming out of a very low average MU period (not much crafting) so an increase in MU and crafting volume will also increase underground activity.

 

Just to add. A couple of days ago, CLD prices crashed to 1100-1150. Now its back up to 1270 (lowest in AH). If u got CLDs during that low period, it will payout better than AUDs as of now.

However, I too believe that AUDs will increase in ROI but not in the next month or two.

Disclaimer: I'm stating facts for the newbies to learn NOT to devalue anything..

In twin peaks, I see AUDs selling in bulk for 47-48 peds before. I believe if u look hard enough, U will be able to get some at 45 peds. Some players would need the peds locked in AUDs for some hunts or to buy items.. The raw price of AUDs at 50 peds is declining a bit. It may decline for a tad more until something big happens in Underground (which I definitely believe it will). Ark admins are a bunch of amazing people.

MY STORY..
I basically kinda sold my whole inventory and skills.. Got enough cash for 140 AUDs initially at the broker. Sat on some nice initial roi. When the roi declined to around 1 pec a day. I saw that CLDs were dropping too. Did my maths and sold my AUDs at 49.5 peds and bought CLDs at the average price of 1200 peds. I will be selling off these CLDs when I feel that something is gonna brew in ark. Or when AUDs touch the price of 40 peds (which I doubt so).

Anyways, I am still a noob in econs haha.. Using EU to learn. But this is just my two cents.
Peace out =)