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Story The Road Travelled (to get an LA) - Raw Data

Discussion in 'Songkra Valley' started by atomicstorm, Apr 19, 2014.

  1. atomicstorm

    atomicstorm Platinum Member Platinum Member

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    The raw data:

    Definitions:

    Consumables - Loot pills, nanos, TT value of keys, performance enhancing drugs
    Damage - Damage reported by the instance
    Kills - Kills reported by the instance
    DPP - Damage per pec based on damage reported (no overkill) and no defensive costs
    Effective DPP - Damage per pec based on damage reported (no overkill) with defensive costs

    Disclaimers


    • Error margin for these results is between 2-3% due to the likelihood that exact decay on some runs may have not been properly captured.
    • Summary and observations are subjective but with fairly decent size data samples to suggest claims.

    Link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G6v0pYD-RcgqZXcie5u2DsJ84GjKtSsieT0z7imfcr4/edit?usp=sharing

    I couldn't post the data in this thread. So here is a link that should be available to all as read-only.

    Total ped returned: 74714.02ped
    Total ped cost: 96517.11ped
    Total loss in key runs: -21,803.29ped
    % Return: 77.4%

    ------------------------------

    Loot Acquired:


    • Dune Rider Harness (M) x1
    • Dune Rider Harness (F) x1
    • Dune Rider Foot Guards (M) x1
    • Dune Rider Arm Guards (M) x1
    • Dune Rider Helmet (F) x1
    • Lokabhu Electrifier Sword x1
    • Shagadi Disintegration Sword x1
    • Empty Skill Implant x4
    • Golden Key Housing x2
    • Golden Key Outer Ring x7
    • Golden Key Barrels x15
    • Golden Key Bearings x46
    • Golden Key Cogs x13

    Summary and observations


    • It is possible to profit in TT if you get a special chest roll. It occurs less than 5% of the time for no more than 200% of chest value. Whether you blitzed the run or did a full clear did not seem to effect this chance with the sample size.



    • The instances seem to be tuned to the expected markup of items unintentionally. Because it is very difficult, if not impossible, to have a return over 85% TT, it appears that Mindark or Planet Arkadia thought the markup of the items at the end would compensate. Since the markup has dropped on all items (golden key parts and items), it is a losing proposition to run these instances especially when coupled with the markup on keys.



    • Continuing from the upper bullets, clearing more mobs only increases the TT loss; however, the TT return % stays roughly the same between 75-82%. It appeared to be possible to increase the TT return % the further over 3dpp that you are. If you are not capable fo running an effective DPP setup > 3dpp, then it is to your interest to only blitz the keys. If you feel that you want to do full clears, hope you hit some HOFs crafting keys or take the chance of doing keys on condition to perhaps cut into the cost with markup on residues or high multipliers with high QR blueprints.



    • Using an SIB, non-maxed setup only lowers TT return. It is extremely discouraged to go into Aakas instances with weapons that are not maxed because the loot does not reward with loot swings/variance that one might expect with loot theories (or perhaps not a theory anymore) like Bond Theory. Furthermore, using skill mods and attachments only increased decay and loss and did nothing, at least moderately measurable, to increase TT return.



    • To make the instances fairly break even or profitable, Arkoin MU should be 150-175% or drop items with decent markup instead of low MU oils. Bottom line, the instances are a markup game with no chance to profit via the TT game in any fashion.



    • Rockets were the best time savers in regards to killing Rakta and Yarrijak. It also seemed to stem off loss of overkills for these mobs which is very easy to do. The general effect on each of these runs, including decay, was an increase in DPP due to crits.



    • Arkoins seem to be loot pool limited. After many runs of having arkoins drop very often, they stopped dropping. From a >95% drop rate to a < 10% drop rate extremely quickly and this continued for the next 2.5 months.



    • Arkoins, statistically even with the runners, drop most often in 1-4 keys in small batches. Arkoins drop in larger batches but infrequently or rarely in upper keys starting with Key 5-10. This is likely due to the number of possible items that could drop in each of the keys and growing increasing based on level.



    • Weapons seem to drop more often in 4-8 keys; however, even though this is known in the community, I believe that this is because these keys are run the most often.



    • Armor drops most frequently and perhaps is limited to Keys 8-10.



    • ESIs are the redeeming items for markup in 4-6 keys.



    • Running level 1-3 keys should only be done if going for certain low markup MU golden key parts, finishing missions, or accumulating small batches of arkoins.



    • Running level 4-6 keys can be decent for finishing defender missions, accumulating arkoins (roughly 25-50% chance), looting UL items, or obtaining high and rare markup golden key parts. Keys 4-6 seem to have the highest markup return in relation to key cost and risk.



    • The rewards for running key 7s are inconclusive other than golden key parts.



    • The rewards for running key 8-10s are best for trying to obtain armor pieces that are equivalent to Angel and Shadow but the risk of loss is high. The redeeming items for these keys are Spleen and Kidney oil that perhaps can keep your loss minimal.



    • More information is needed but I observed, perhaps biasedly, that there seemed to be three underlining rolls with loot: Number of items, the specific item that will drop, and the quantity of said item. Other than this is typical for most multiplayer games, armor dropped for me regardless if I did full clears or blitz'd. Armor and weapons dropped when there were more than 3 items in the return pool. When arkoins, weapons, and armor dropped, the TT return % was lowered to compensate even with a very high DPP. It broke the trend that DPP does effect TT return. This was recorded using a formula called reward roll (seed) that allowed me to see most runs were in a very tight range unless arkoins/armor dropped. In one case, an armor piece dropped that was near a rare item ATH and the TT% return became out of balance (very low).
     
  2. harmony

    harmony Active Member Pro Users

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    Thanks for sharing, return is what i expected, you're lucky you got some nice stuff during the runs.
    I just have one question: loot pills?
     
  3. atomicstorm

    atomicstorm Platinum Member Platinum Member

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    the auto-loot pills. I obviously didn't use them in the run but I added it for definition purposes.
     
  4. svena

    svena Active Member Pro Users

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    Nice data, seems to be right in line with mine.

    These instances, like the hell keys and caly beacons are a different way of balancing. MA is trading a higher chance of looting something unL for a lower TT% return. I very much dislike this practice as it is not sustainable in any fashion. Just because someone loses a bunch of ped looting an unL item does not mean the demand for that item increases. I have personally drastically reduced the number of keys I run and the MU I pay for golden parts and went from dedicating 95% of my in game time to the golden door to maybe 5% of my in game time.
     
  5. the Prophet

    the Prophet Active Member

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    awesome information, thanks alot for sharing! :rolleyes:
     

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