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Onyar's Attempt on Ball Bearings O.o

Discussion in 'Crafting' started by raynopssgold, Sep 12, 2012.

  1. raynopssgold

    raynopssgold Active Member

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    Hi guys,

    Well, here's my first attempt on Ball Bearings (I'm quite nervous here lol) It's my first crafting log on Arkadia's forum and I hope, it would be a nice one :)

    Note: I will put 20 clicks for each crafting machine!

    Ok, here we go...

    Cost for Raw Materials

    Ospra Ingots: 865 ingots (62 peds)
    Lysterium Ingots: 865 ingots (31.2 peds)
    Subtotal: 62 + 31.2 = 93.2 peds
    Cost per click = (62/865)+(31.2/865) = 0.108 peds

    PS: Locations for clicking the ball bearings are random.

    First location:

    Celeste Harbour's Time Machines (From right to left)

    Machine 1:

    Times of Success: 6
    Times of Failed: 14
    % of Success Rate: 30%
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 30
    Extra stuffs: 6 Metal Residues + Gas Module BP (Already placed on auction for 3.00 peds!)

    Machine 3:

    Times of Success: 7
    Times of Failed: 13
    % of Success Rate: 35
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 37
    Extra stuffs: 15 Metal Residues

    Machine 5:

    Times of Success: 6
    Times of Failed: 14
    % of Success Rate: 30
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 33
    Extra stuffs: 9 Metal Residues

    After 60 attempts, the tt vs spent is: 2.30/6.60 = 34.85%

    To be continued...
     
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  2. KMax

    KMax Well-Known Member Pro Users

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    Maybe post skill level in manufacturing skill for blueprint and Quality Rating of blue print and mention if you did quantity over quality or did partial quality over quantity. All these play an important factor in success rates of manufacturing items.

    I am guessing your a low level mechanical engineer and the QR of BP is very low using quantity setting.
     
  3. raynopssgold

    raynopssgold Active Member

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    Hi bro,

    Yeap, i'm a low level mechanical engineer and the QR is nothing, just slightly over 30+. Well, by crafting low level stuffs, like ball bearings, I mostly choose quantity over quality.

    I will keep update this crafting log, keep watching guys!
     
  4. raynopssgold

    raynopssgold Active Member

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    Second location:

    Implacable Firebase (First round)

    Machine 1:

    Times of Success: 6
    Times of Failed: 14
    % of Success Rate: 30%
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 29
    Extra stuffs: 14 Metal Residues + Insulator BP + Welding Wire BP

    Machine 2:

    Times of Success: 6
    Times of Failed: 14
    % of Success Rate: 30
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 49
    Extra stuffs: 111 Metal Residues (The largest batch of Metal Residues I ever got) + Welding Wire BP

    Implacable Firebase (Second round)

    Machine 1:

    Times of Success: 6
    Times of Failed: 14
    % of Success Rate: 30
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 30
    Extra stuffs: 12 Metal Residues

    Machine 2:

    Times of Success: 6
    Times of Failed: 14
    % of Success Rate: 30
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 39
    Extra stuffs: 14 Metal Residues

    Notes: My Ball Bearings' BP QR went to 33.1 now!

    After 140 attempts, the tt vs spent is: 7.09/15.40 = 46.04%


    The first round at Implacable FB was awesome, where I looted 3 BPs (1 UL+2 Ls) and looted my biggest batch of Metal Residues as well. However, the second round was expected, where there's nothing special about it!

    To be continued...

    PS: You will find out, that the success rate for crafting ball bearings out of 20 attempts are 30%.
     
  5. Neil

    Neil Adviser Pro Users Arkadia Adviser

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    Interesting... I would be very surprised if location had any effect at all on crafting results. Results are determined by MA's loot formulas so it's extremely unlikely, IMO, that they would include factors in that loot equation that a PP could manipulate, e.g. location.

    One request, though. It would be helpful if you could remove the colored text from your post, so that people who use a white background can also read it.
     
  6. raynopssgold

    raynopssgold Active Member

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    Hi Neil,

    Well, im still testing it out, whether locations do have a big effect on our crafting's loots. By the way, all colored texts changed to white again. :)
     
  7. Neil

    Neil Adviser Pro Users Arkadia Adviser

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    I still can't see the text in post #4. There is a button (second to the left) that removes all formatting and makes the text display in the default color regardless of which skin is used. If you select all and hit that button, it should strip out all custom colors.
     
  8. raynopssgold

    raynopssgold Active Member

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    Ok, how about now? I've clicked the 2nd button :) Please let me know the outcome on your side, tyvm :)
     
  9. Neil

    Neil Adviser Pro Users Arkadia Adviser

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    I can see it all now. Thanks!
     
  10. Cyborg Bill

    Cyborg Bill Well-Known Member Pro Users

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    Way back in the day when all the EU's mathmaticians were doing studies on how the economy works I believe they did one for crafting success rate. I believe it was determined if ALL conditions were at best IE skill level, BP qr, angle of the sun, that the best success rate you could get would be 42% of the attempts made. So that being said I think you could almost predict what your out comes could be if applied properly and some how factored into that whole 90% return over time thing.

    I also believe that where you craft plays an important part of returns and chances to hit big. How many crafters have "Favorite" terminals, and how many have favorite terminals for specific bp's. They have them because of their success historyand that is why someone seemingly has "Luck" with crafting.

    Lastly I will say this as many other will as well. For this to be a realistic "Proof" or fail of any theory the sample sizes of the runs are too small to determine anything solid. I will also say however taht I believe that if you have the right place with the right bp or even when applied to hunting or mining have the right gear to match the right action in the right place all falls together nicely and it does not matter what your sample size is, the successes will come.
     
  11. raynopssgold

    raynopssgold Active Member

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    Hi m8,

    Thanks for stopping by and leaving us your words here. :D
     
  12. raynopssgold

    raynopssgold Active Member

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    Third location:

    Aakas Auction House (First round)

    Machine 1:

    Times of Success: 5
    Times of Failed: 15
    % of Success Rate: 25%
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 24
    Extra stuffs: 14 Metal Residues

    Machine 2:

    Times of Success: 8
    Times of Failed: 12
    % of Success Rate: 40
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 49
    Extra stuffs: 14 Metal Residues

    Ocean Outlook's AH (Second round)

    Machine 1:

    Times of Success: 9
    Times of Failed: 11
    % of Success Rate: 45
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 63
    Extra stuffs: 12 Metal Residues

    Machine 2:

    Times of Success: 10
    Times of Failed: 10
    % of Success Rate: 50
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 70
    Extra stuffs: 43 Metal Residues + Polymer Rail's BP

    Notes: My Ball Bearings' BP QR went from 33.1 to 34.9 now!

    After 220 attempts, the tt vs spent is: 12.14/24.20 = 50.17% (Finally, a 50% tt return lol)

    I met a new friend, Svena svena Faraday at Aakas AH. So, I decided to test out the ball bearings' crafting over there. Well, the result ended up with nothing good. Then, I waived goodbye to Svena and changed my location to Ocean Outlook. Two runs inside the AH and the result was awesome! I got my highest success rate (50%) for this run. It's makes me wondering..., that the locations really affecting our success rate... :huh:

    To be continued...
     
  13. Neil

    Neil Adviser Pro Users Arkadia Adviser

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    I believe you said in game that you aren't yet maxed on the blueprint, so that explains part of your low TT return. Some crafters (including me) won't click a BP until they have maxed it. The exception for me is a rare item I know I can get an exceptionally high MU on. If you haven't unlocked blueprint comprehension yet, that might also be a factor in your loot returns.

    If loot were "random", you might be able to process your results fairly easily using normal statistical methods. However, loot is not random--it's "dynamic". It's difficult to do statistics on a dynamic process, but the way you're doing it might work as well as any other: treat each run of 20 clicks as one individual data point with several characteristics (# successes, value of product, and value of residue). You'd need to record many runs at each location. I don't think I'd be exaggerating if I say that you're going to need hundreds or thousands of data points at each location over a long time period to see whether your results are significantly different for different crafting machines, unless of course there are extreme differences between terminals. You also have to take into account that as your QR and skills increase, your results will change. Ideally you'd want to have higher skills and chip out during the test to control for skill gains... and use a QR 100 bp.

    I'm not saying you should tackle a project of that magnitude, I merely want to point out that your data set is still too small to draw any conclusions about crafting machine location.

    Anyway, keep up the project, I think you and the rest of us will learn a lot about crafting. And keep removing that color formatting :)
     
  14. harmony

    harmony Active Member Pro Users

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    I just hope onyar learns that some blueprints are just not worth crafting :)
     
  15. raynopssgold

    raynopssgold Active Member

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    @Neil: Perhaps, the success rate is quite a "random" stuff here.

    @Harmony: Yeah, I know, ball bearings aren't worth big, but it's still good 4 gaining some skills :p

    By the way, here's another newest crafting result...

    Fourth attempt:

    Relentless FB Auction House (First round)

    Machine 1:

    Times of Success: 6
    Times of Failed: 14
    % of Success Rate: 30%
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 34
    Extra stuffs: 14 Metal Residues

    Machine 2:

    Times of Success: 7
    Times of Failed: 13
    % of Success Rate: 35
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 39
    Extra stuffs: 9 Metal Residues

    Repulse FBA AH (Second round)

    Machine 1:

    Times of Success: 13
    Times of Failed: 7
    % of Success Rate: 65
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 76
    Extra stuffs: 12 Metal Residues

    Machine 2:

    Times of Success: 6
    Times of Failed: 14
    % of Success Rate: 30
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 49
    Extra stuffs: 62 Metal Residues

    Notes: My Ball Bearings' BP QR went from 34.9 to 35.8 now!

    After 300 attempts, the tt vs spent is: 17.07/33.00 = 51.73% (Slightly better than before :p)

    Well, I always have sucky crafting result (I tried crafting textures before at the same machines, of course without a crafting log) at Relentless FB AH's crafting machines. This time, it's also the same.

    Then, I TPed to Repulse FBA AH and did my crafting over there. The result was marvelous! 65% success rate for the first batch with 76 ball bearings at once (The highest ball bearings that I ever got!) For the second batch, I managed to loot some nice amount of Metal Residues as well :) Too bad, I didn't looted any BP for this run.

    To be continued...
     
  16. Neil

    Neil Adviser Pro Users Arkadia Adviser

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    I think increased skills would benefit you here... skilling by grinding BPs is not real fast. You will skill faster and cheaper with mothership repair skilling, so you might want to check that out. If you haven't yet unlocked Blueprint Comprehension, you can probably do that with a few more RK-5s and some welding wire (it takes 10 tools to get there from lvl 0). Just like hunting with unmaxed weapons, it's the "misses" that really hurt your returns (failures in crafting terminology). You can decrease these failures by maxing the blueprint.
     
  17. raynopssgold

    raynopssgold Active Member

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    Hi Neil,

    I think you have the point here. Maybe, I should unlock "Blueprint Comprehension" first, before I try any other crafting... lol

    By the way, here's the latest crafting result:

    Fifth attempt:

    Formidable FB Auction House (First round)

    Machine 1:

    Times of Success: 5
    Times of Failed: 15
    % of Success Rate: 25%
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 28
    Extra stuffs: 10 Metal Residues

    Machine 2:

    Times of Success: 7
    Times of Failed: 13
    % of Success Rate: 35
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 38
    Extra stuffs: 11 Metal Residues

    Dependable FBA AH (Second round)

    Machine 1:

    Times of Success: 8
    Times of Failed: 12
    % of Success Rate: 40
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 42
    Extra stuffs: 10 Metal Residues

    Machine 2:

    Times of Success: 8
    Times of Failed: 12
    % of Success Rate: 40
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 47
    Extra stuffs: 18 Metal Residues

    Well, even though I've been staying so long on Arkadia, but I never been to Formidable FB+FBA and Dependable FB+FBA yet. So, I took some time, flying with my VTOL and got these four remaining TPs on Arkadia! Then, I tried my ball bearings crafting over there, but the result was soso.

    Notes: My Ball Bearings' BP QR went from 35.8 to 36.9 now!

    After 300 attempts, the tt vs spent is: 20.66/41.80 = 49.43% (Less than 50% tt again lol)

    =============================================================================
     
  18. raynopssgold

    raynopssgold Active Member

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    Sixth Attempt:

    Courageous FB Auction House (First round)


    Machine 1:

    Times of Success: 7
    Times of Failed: 13
    % of Success Rate: 35%
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 58
    Extra stuffs: 68 Metal Residues (2nd largest looted of Metal Residues)

    Machine 2:

    Times of Success: 9
    Times of Failed: 11
    % of Success Rate: 45
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 63
    Extra stuffs: 11 Metal Residues

    Dauntless FBA AH (Second round)

    Machine 1:

    Times of Success: 8
    Times of Failed: 12
    % of Success Rate: 40
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 52
    Extra stuffs: 16 Metal Residues

    Machine 2:

    Times of Success: 6
    Times of Failed: 14
    % of Success Rate: 30
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 38
    Extra stuffs: 18 Metal Residues

    I changed my locations again lol This time, I crafted at Courageous FB AH's crafting machines and Dauntless FBA AH's crafting machines. The first round was very awesome, where I got my 2nd largest metal residues' loot and quite an awesome amount of ball bearings. For the second round, the result was ok.

    Notes: My Ball Bearings' BP QR went from 36.9 to 38.5 now!

    After 300 attempts, the tt vs spent is: 26.01/50.60 = 51.40% (Woot, exceeded 50% tt once again :p)

    To be continued...
     
  19. raynopssgold

    raynopssgold Active Member

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    I did the seventh, eighth and ninth attempts altogether. Here's the result:

    Seventh Attempts

    Resolute FB Auction House (First round)

    Machine 1:

    Times of Success: 3
    Times of Failed: 17
    % of Success Rate: 15
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 21
    Extra stuffs: 18 Metal Residues

    Machine 2:

    Times of Success: 10
    Times of Failed: 10
    % of Success Rate: 50
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 51
    Extra stuffs: 12 Metal Residues + Insulator BP

    Steadfast FB AH (Second round)

    Machine 1:

    Times of Success: 9
    [COLOR=#F3F3F3]Times of Failed: 11[/COLOR]
    [COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3]% of Success Rate: 45[/COLOR][/COLOR]
    [COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3]Amount of Ball Bearings created: 43
    [/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][COLOR=#F3F3F3]Extra stuffs: 20 Metal Residues[/COLOR][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3]

    [COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3]Machine 2:[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]

    [COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3]Times of Success: 5[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]
    [COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3]Times of Failed: 15[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]
    [COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3]% of Success Rate: 25[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]
    [COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3]Amount of Ball Bearings created: 28[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]
    [COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3]Extra stuffs: 12 Metal Residues

    Eighth Attempts

    [/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]Defiant FB Auction House (First round)


    Machine 1:


    Times of Success: 9
    Times of Failed: 11
    % of Success Rate: 45
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 54
    Extra stuffs: 16 Metal Residues


    Machine 2:


    Times of Success: 10
    Times of Failed: 10
    % of Success Rate: 50
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 64
    Extra stuffs: 9 Metal Residues


    Sanctuary Cove AH (Second round)


    Machine 1:


    Times of Success: 6
    Times of Failed: 14
    % of Success Rate: 30
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 28
    Extra stuffs: 18 Metal Residues


    Machine 2:


    Times of Success: 5
    Times of Failed: 15
    % of Success Rate: 25
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 27
    Extra stuffs: 9 Metal Residues

    Ninth Attempts

    Ocean Outlook Auction House (First round)


    Machine 1:


    Times of Success: 8
    Times of Failed: 12
    % of Success Rate: 40
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 42
    Extra stuffs: 13 Metal Residues


    Machine 2:


    Times of Success: 4
    Times of Failed: 16
    % of Success Rate: 20
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 35
    Extra stuffs: 15 Metal Residues


    Repulse FBA AH (Second round)


    Machine 1:


    Times of Success: 6
    Times of Failed: 14
    % of Success Rate: 30
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 34
    Extra stuffs: 19 Metal Residues + Welding Wire BP


    Machine 2:


    Times of Success: 6
    Times of Failed: 14
    % of Success Rate: 30
    Amount of Ball Bearings created: 43
    Extra stuffs: 12 Metal Residues + Fuel Cells BP

    There's nothing special during the last three attempts, except the newest Fuel Cells BP that I looted here.

    [COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3]Notes: My Ball Bearings' BP QR went from 38.5 to 41.4 now![/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]

    [COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3][COLOR=#F3F3F3]After 540 attempts, the tt vs spent is: 37.14/77.00 = 48.23% (the tt return keeps going down o_O)

    To be continued...[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]
     
  20. Samuel Sam Robet

    Samuel Sam Robet Active Member Pro Users

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    I like your log! I don't think you will get better results till you are lvl 5. Can you also post your level per thread?