Neil's Success Rate Log

I'm making one daily run of 500 Ball Bearings to demonstrate the success rates. BP QR started at 96 and reached 100 after the first half dozen runs (didn't record which run). For consistency, MUs are fixed for all runs at Lyst 112, Ospra 116, residue 106% (the prices when I began this log). Notice the high product MU's you'd need to break even.


[TABLE="class: outer_border, width: 600, align: center"]

[TD="align: center"]Date
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Slider*[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Clicks[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]TT mats[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Success Rate[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]TT return[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]% Product**[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Break-even MU***[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]9/11/2013[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quantity[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]500[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]26.6%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]85.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]32%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]178%[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]9/12/2013[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quantity[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]500[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45[/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]81.7%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]28%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]199%[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]9/13/2013[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quantity[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]500[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45[/TD]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]79.4%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]32%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]197%[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]9/14/2013[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quantity[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]500[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33.2%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]90.8%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]36%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]153%[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]9/19/2013[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quantity[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]500[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]31.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]74.8%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]35%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]204%[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]9/20/2013[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quantity[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]500[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]35.2%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]74.2%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]38%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]198%[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]9/21/2013
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Condition[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]500[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2.2%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]96.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]9%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]235%[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]9/21/2013[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quantity[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]500[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]36.2%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]81.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]40%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]174%[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]9/22/2013[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quantity[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]500[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]31.2%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]76.6%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]37%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]196%[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]9/23/2013[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quantity[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]500[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]32.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]95.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]37%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]140%[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]9/23/2013
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Condition
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]500
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2.8%
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]56.2%
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]13%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]512%
[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]9/26/2013[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quantity[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]500[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]38.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]73.6%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]40%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]195%[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]9/27/2013[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quantity[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]500[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]37.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]76.4%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]40%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]187%[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]10/2/2013[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quantity[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]500[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]37.2%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]75.7%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]41%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]188%[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]10/2/2013
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Condition
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]500
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]4.0%
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]78.8%
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]19%
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]265%
[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]10/3/2013[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quantity[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]500[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]34.8%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]89.7%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]39%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]153%[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]10/4/2013
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Condition
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]500
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]5.8%
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]117.4%
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]29%
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]67%
[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]10/4/2013[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quantity[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]500[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]34.2%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]79.8%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]38%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]183%[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]10/5/2013[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quantity[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]500[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33.6%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.4%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]40%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]124%[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]10/8/2013[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quantity[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]500[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]35.4%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]86.8%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]40%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]161%[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]10/10/2013[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quantity[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]500[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]40.4%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]89.3%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]46%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]147%[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]10/11/2013[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quantity[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]500[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]36.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]99.5%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]44%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]124%[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]10/16/2013[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quantity[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]500[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]35.6%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]87.4%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]39%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]168%[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]11/15/2013[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quantity[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]500[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]41.6%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]158.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]55%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]9.24%[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]01/04/2014[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quantity[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]500[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]37.8%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]82.7%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]43%[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]167%
[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]01/06/2014
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quantity
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]500
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]39.4%
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]99.6%
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]47%
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]124%
[/TD]
[/TABLE]

* Condition Slider is set to either extreme
** % Product = (TT of product) / (TT mats)
*** Break-even MU is the MU at which I'd need to sell the product to completely break even on the run (this calculation takes into account the MUs of all resources and biproducts except BP value).

 

New data.

 

Today's run went better. Brilliant, I just realized I've not been recording the "success rate" (number of successful clicks/total clicks) from each run.



Previous runs' success rates hovered from 22 to 26%. Today's was 33.2%, the first rate over 30% (on a long run) that I've had since the nerf about 2 weeks ago. Things may be looking up... though 33% is still a bit low. Compared to last year's rates.

 

Ran another run, Nusul texture, 34% success rate after 500 clicks. Things may be improving (up from 20-25% success over the last 2 weeks).

 

A new run after my little vacation.

 

New data.

 

Recently I've been looking at success rates for condition crafting (thanks to huge losses on my normally-decent level 2 amp bp), and I believe Mindark is messing around with success rates for "condition" independently of "quantity". They seem to have fixed the quantity problem but condition is not the same as before, IMO. I'll try to start logging condition runs as well, if I have time.

Of course condition crafting has always been highly variable, but it used to be more reliable than it is now, at least in my experience. I advise using extra caution when crafting on condition and make sure you can handle the loss if the run turns out to be only 1 or 2% success rate and only normal size loots. I recommend only using condition when looking for BPs and you're intending to do at least 1000 clicks and TTing all loot except residue... and you can bear the loss of a 20 - 50% TT return if you don't get a BIG loot. If you're at all making products for sale, avoid condition.

Today's run on condition: 500 clicks, 2.2% success rate, decent return thanks to a 21 ped "HOF". Notice that even though it's a good TT return, because of the low success rate, it makes the break even price of product higher than a 70% TT return run on quantity.

 

More runs, note very low TT return on condition this time (condition success rate is still very low).

 

double post

 

my personal rule is 2k minimum for condition, not sure how other people do it, but I don't think 500 is near enough to trigger a larger 'pay back' gambling like that.

 

I'm not sure what you mean by "trigger" but yeah, 500 is not a long run for condition. However, considering that the market value of BBs is below what I can craft them for, I'm not going to do 2000 click condition runs every day (condition runs = significantly higher break even cost). Plus, it would take too long. 500 at least gives an idea of the variability, and you can see the low success rate on condition pretty clearly, which isn't as variable as TT return.

 

New run today. 38% success rate on quantity.

 

Two runs today, quantity and condition.

 

Updated.

 

New run, notice that the % product (TT loot/TT mats) has been pretty stable lately.

 

Quantity run today shows a possible increase in success rate and % product. Doing condition run now, will have to see if this run was a fluke or if it's a real change.

 

i just had a few hundered clicks with decent normal success rate I hope it stays

 

Percent Product definitely looks like it's been raised about 10% since the patch.

 

Log updated with new run