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Crafting experiment - 10K generic leather clicks

Discussion in 'Crafting' started by Lucky_A, Jun 12, 2012.

  1. Lucky_A

    Lucky_A Member

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    Was a bit upset due to last days crafting experience on Ark – as was getting hardly any Ark BPs … plus the Dev-Notes-2 “no personal loot pool” message … so I thought to run a small experiment to see how’s low-end crafting doing at the moment :eek:

    So, decided to make a big run on Generic Leather texture…

    Input (providing at least 10,000 clicks):

    • 20,000 generic leather (600 PED TT)
    • 10,000 basic leather extractors (100 PED TT)
    OVERALL TT INPUT : 700 PED (considering MU ~800 PED)

    I’m lvl 12 Material Manufacturer at the moment, the BP has max QR, all clicks will be done of full quantity … so is the most efficient approach I can think of – maxed BP, over skilled, no risk … let’s see that "efficiency" statement from MA put to the test :whistle:

    Forecasted OUTPUT (based on my experience) :

    • TT Return ~90% (~630 PED)
    • Metal Residue in the TT Return ~20% ( ~126 PED )
    • Total BP drops ~1% of number of clicks (~ 100 BPs)
    • Ark specific BP drops ~10% of total BP drops (~10 BPs)

    As you see I’m forecasting ~60 PED loses @TT (considering residue MU) and is up to the MU of these expected 10 Ark BPs to cover that and the extra 100 PED in mats MU ( *praying for a Nusul BP* :rolleyes:)

    So … got the mats, found a quiet place where crashes shouldn’t be an issue, dropped everything in the crafting machine and went to sleep … estimated time for those 10K cliks is ~12h :tired:

    Made a 1h break with ~2K clicks to go in order to avoid MA’s magic moment – the LAG time … and 2h later … I had the results ...

    OVERALL RUN OUTPUT :

    • TT Return : 615.87 PED ( 87.98%) out of which :
      • Generic Leather texture : 289.10 PED ( 46.94%)
      • Metal Residue : 141.76 PED (23.02%)
      • Tailoring Remnants : 122.19 PED ( 19.84%)
      • BPs : 32.83 PED ( 5.33%)
      • Mats leftovers : 29.99 PED ( 4.87%) - these are the extractors left at the end
    • Total BP drops : 118 ( 54 L / 64 UL ... 1.18% of the min number of clicks)
    • Ark specific BP drops : 6 ( 5.08% of total BPs / 9.37% of UL BPs)
    HOFs/Globs : NONE

    Conclusion ? Some might say 10K clicks is too less for a conclusion … imho is enough to judge that nothing changed and there is some sort of activity tracking mechanishm in place ;) ... as you see my predictions were really close to the end results :p ... and follow same pattern I noticed in similar component crafting experiments in the past.

    Interesting is the % of Ark specific BPs in the total BP loot … considering Ark has no L texture BPs, this % is probably smaller than in other branches (like armor or weap crafting), but overall impression is that sits at approximatelly 10% ... is it enough ? My oppinion is a big NO and think this is much more obvious in the weaps or armors section ...

    Overall seems I just lost ~150 peds ... on the bright side I did got that Nusul BP :cool: so I could say I ended up on green ... still thinking if to sell it or not :eek:

    Thought to share this small crafting experiment with the community … thanks for reading this far and hope you found it a bit interesting at least ;)
     
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  2. Kitten

    Kitten Adviser Pro Users Arkadia Adviser

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    ohhhh grats on nusul that one crazy rare. Thats same kind of results I get all the time too
     
  3. Neil

    Neil Adviser Pro Users Arkadia Adviser

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    I really don't like that the majority of BP drops are worthless Calypso BPs. Calypso crafters don't have to sort though 90% Arkadia BPs do they? I don't mind an occasional BP from some other planet, but that should be the 10%, and the 90% should be from the planet you're crafting on.

    I haven't done any real weapons crafting, so over the weekend I thought I'd do a run to see if I could get any of the Ark BPs, esp. the laser weapons, whose BPs are never in auction. I got worthless Loughlin Smacker and Scratcher BPs and nothing else, not even TT return for my trouble (50%).
     
  4. TimUnleashed

    TimUnleashed Forum Official Pro Users

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    Lucky_A, thanks for sharing your results and taking the time to explain your method. I found your post easy to follow and understand.

    You seem to be saying that based on things happening as predicted, the "system" "knows" what you're doing and is tracking it (and presumably acting on that)...

    I'm not sure I agree with this logic. To me it sounds a bit like saying I flipped a coin 1000 times, got 49% tails and 51% heads, therefore there's some sort of coin-flip tracking mechanism in place making sure I stick to an expected result. As far as I can see from what you're saying, it could just as easily be sheer probability.

    Still, stats are always great to see, thanks :)
     
  5. harmony

    harmony Active Member Pro Users

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    Wow that are a lot of blueprints. Guess the bleuprint drop rate is different depending on the sort of items you craft.
     
  6. Lucky_A

    Lucky_A Member

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    Even that is a kind of tracking mechanism :D ... Joking aside, I do not claim I know how it works and others have wrote tons about how they think loot system is working :p ... all I can say, after the latest comments from MA devs about no "personal loot pool", is that I "feel" a sort of short term activity based tracking mechanishm in place ... like in "is not totally random". Given past experience (to be read "wasted PEDs" ;)) I know there's no "safety net" and taking risks usually will cost you dearly :eek: ... but doing normal activities - within your skills reach - somehow seems to balance out long term ... resembles coin flipping ? maybe ... but my belief is that there's more to it than pure randomness :)

    Is not a lot... 1.18% basically means you'll get one bp every 100 clicks ... add to that Ark's 10% and it means you'll get in average 1 Ark BP in every 1,000 clicks :p ... in average, of course.
    Drop rate - at least what I observed so far - seems not linked to the sort of item you craft. My personal feeling is that drops are somehow time based, as I had runs of 500 clicks with no BP drop and others of 50 cliks with 4-5 BPs on same item. That's why I think when doing a big run - like those 10k clicks spanning over 12h - drop rate evens out and you get more or less the average, that beeing the 1.18% described above.
    Honestly, I lack the funds or the gambling crazyness to test that on anything with higher cost per click, like weaps or amps :p
     
  7. harmony

    harmony Active Member Pro Users

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    I didn't really keep track, but on average i think i get one blueprint per 500 clicks with enhancer crafting. Will keep a closer look on it in the future.
     
  8. Archman

    Archman Member

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    Great to see these results. Don't craft components on Ark. I guarantee over 50% of the bps will be welding wire.
     
  9. mrproper

    mrproper Member

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    Nice experiment, looking forward to another one with Wool or Arkadian textures :)

    Is that bad? I thought those sold for 200% or so?
     
  10. Lucky_A

    Lucky_A Member

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    Enhancer's are one crafting topic I can't comment on ;) ... simply cause I don't like crafting them so did not craft much ... think I have my lowest crafting lvl in this one :eek:. But will be interesting to see some results if you can keep track ;) Got some feedback via PMs that mining amps seem to average 6 BP drop per 1000 clicks (0.6% drop rate), but that's unconfirmed as the one providing the info never went above 200 clicks per run :) Myself use to do 50 or 100 clicks per run on amps, so can't provide reliable info either :(

    Thanks. Problem with wool or Ark textures is simply too high cost per click (considering MU for Ark ones). Imho a realistic experiment should cover 24h of crafting (yes, I do believe a LOT of the individual crafting results are time based :rolleyes:) and that's roughly 22k clicks ... way toooooo much for my PED card :eek:
    What I will do, cause some friends asked for this, is another 10K clicks on generic leather texture, but this time on full condition :cool: ... think will be quite interesting comparing the two experiments, especially regarding BP drops ;)
     
  11. Kitten

    Kitten Adviser Pro Users Arkadia Adviser

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    when you do full condition you will get more (L) ones and some rarer
     
  12. Lucky_A

    Lucky_A Member

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    Ok, as promised I went ahead and made another 10K clicks of generic leather texture, but this time on full condition. :cool:
    Same Input as before (700 PED TT), same location – crafting machine – similar time …

    Forecasted OUTPUT (based on my experience) :

    • TT Return ~80% (~560 PED)
    • Metal Residue in the TT Return ~40% ( ~224 PED )
    • Total BP drops ~0.7% of number of clicks (~ 70 BPs)
    • Ark specific BP drops ~5% of total BP drops (~4 BPs)

    Really hard to estimate the result tbh :rolleyes: ... cause of that tracking mechanism I spoke in previous posts I do believe final TT outcome will be close to the magic 90% but lower, so I chosed 80%. For sure metal residue will be much more as before in the output, so I estimate a double quantity. BP drops are hardest to estimate ... BP drops only on succesfull attempts, and on condition you have 6-8 times in average less successfull attempts than on quantity ... yet, condition clicks yield higher returns per click thus imho higher BP drop chance ... all in all I estimate 70% of the min number of clicks. Ark specific percentage I keep same as before, just adjusted now to 5% instead of 10% as no L BPs for Ark. I do agree with Kitty that I’d see more L BPs in the outcome , but let’s see the actual results ...

    After 12h and a good night sleep this is what I found when crafting run ended ....

    OVERALL RUN OUTPUT :

    • TT Return : 872.36 PED ( 124.62% !!!!!) out of which :
      • Generic Leather texture : 175.70 PED ( 20.14%)
      • Metal Residue : 224.26 PED (25.71%)
      • Tailoring Remnants : 434.09 PED ( 49.76%)
      • BPs : 18.40 PED ( 2.11%)
      • Mats leftovers : 19.91 PED ( 2.28%) - these are the extractors left at the end


    • Total BP drops : 75 ( 33 L / 42 UL ... 0.75% of the min number of clicks)
    • Ark specific BP drops : 7 ( 9.33% of total BPs / 16.66% of UL BPs)

    HOFs/Globs : 266 PED HOF (according tracker)

    Clearly that HOF (altough welcomed :p) viciates the result ... let’s take a look again considering that HOF as an extraordinary event and removing it’s value from the result (was only tailoring remnants in it btw :mad:) and compare with the full quantity experiment (E1)


    • TT Return (without HOF) : 606.36 PED ( 86.62% vs 87.98% in E1) out of which :
      • Generic Leather texture : 175.70 PED ( 28.98% vs 46.94% in E1)
      • Metal Residue : 224.26 PED (36.98% vs 23.02% in E1)
      • Tailoring Remnants : 168.09 PED ( 27.72% vs 19.84% in E1)
      • BPs : 18.40 PED ( 3.03% vs 5.33% in E1)
      • Mats leftovers : 19.91 PED ( 3.28% vs 4.87% in E1) - these are the extractors left at the end

    That looks more realistic to the average :D, altough notice the high return %, almost same as in the full quantity experiment :eek:. As expected, crafting on condition greatly reduces the % of actual product in the outcome while increasing the % of residue accordingly.

    BPs are the interesting thing here :p... overall I got less BPs than before – as expected considering the lower succesfull attempts number, but notice the high number of UL BPs in the result :eek:. Also, accordingly, the number of Ark specific BPs is unexpectedly high – almost double the original estimation and, funny enough, more than I got crafting on quantity :p. As Kitty stated, crafting on condition increases the chances of rare BP drops and that’s why – I think – more Ark specific BPs dropped this time ... simply cause they’re set to „uncommon” or „rare”. Still, an average of one specific Ark BP texture drop in 1,428 clicks is kinda tough :(

    Might seem I did much better on condition than on quantity – and for those 2 experiments is true :p – but I wouldn’t advise any1 to go condition ... imho is quite risky, especially when you craft higher cost/click mats, and usually you need a good number of clicks to increase chances of getting payed back (in this experiment HOF came after more than 8K clicks)

    Thanks for reading this far :D ... that’s the end of texture experiments on Ark from my side and hope this thread proved informative for you folks ;)
     
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  13. raynopssgold

    raynopssgold Active Member

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    I myself is a Brukite Stone Textures crafter. I kept a crafting log and noticed that I got roughly a BP (Either an UL or L) for every 160 clicks.

    So, for a 500 clicks, I mostly got 3 BPs in the end... :)
     
  14. rick_janson

    rick_janson Well-Known Member Pro Users

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    I craft components on Arkadia all the time. And while it's true I get a lot of welding wire blueprints, they do sell, and I have a friend who buys them because he likes to make it. But crafting those components is the only way I can keep going ingame right now. :p